Seems like an own-goal to start the trial after he's potentially secured the nomination.
this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2023
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The goal is to set the trial as l late as she can get away with, then stall, stall, and stall some more in hopes he can get reelected before it ends and then just pardon himself.
I hope I don't eat these words, but I don't see how he could possibly win the general election after his other trials conclude.
It's a pretty pathetic state of affairs that I fully expect him to win the GOP nomination because of his legal issues.
They're going to try to cheat and they've been working on that since last time to make that happen. They're putting their side in charge of elections, redistricting, etc. While the press talks about Bobo & the clown and trump, they're working on stuff behind the scenes.
Generally speaking, they were already in charge of elections & redistricting for a lot of states. The "Independent Legislature" thing the SCotUS kicked to the curb was their only real shot they had for outright "legally" stealing an election. Mathematically speaking, you can only gerrymander a given area so much & that hardly matters for Senate & Presidential elections.
They "caught the car" with Roe vs. Wade & don't know how the fuck to recover from that mistake.
"Wokeness" is about 3 times more popular than the GOP.
The GOP has lost 10 of their last 12 special elections, some of those in areas they were never supposed to lose.
Last time I looked, COVID was still killing 100 very likely GOP adherents every single day in the USA.
Millennials hate the GOP, almost monolithically. Demographics are going to crush the GOP in the next two elections.
Gen ~~Y~~ Z is the same. I hope all of that matters
Millennials are Gen Y. Are you thinking of Zoomers?
Yes
Only matters if they vote
They voted in record numbers last presidential election. Hopefully that carries over.
I hope you're right, but I know a lot of these state legislatures are doing their best to gerrymander, and otherwise rig elections. Some states are fighting that (Michigan is majority dem for the first time in forever because of a separate, non-politician run redistricting committee and expanded voting rights bills), but there are a lot (see North Carolina, and Alabama's refusal to create a second majority black district even though they have been ordered to do so by the Supreme Court.
He won last time when everyone wrote him off. We shouldn't make the same mistake again.
He's not just a GOP candidate, he is the champion of grifters and fearful white people. I have lots of people who live near me with trump paraphernalia outside their houses and prominently displayed in their places of business. They are so invested in him that logic takes a back seat to the need to win.
I hope you're right, but I know a lot of these state legislatures are doing their best to gerrymander, and otherwise rig elections. Some states are fighting that (Michigan is majority dem for the first time in forever because of a separate, non-politician run redistricting committee and expanded voting rights bills), but there are a lot (see North Carolina, and Alabama's refusal to create a second majority black district even though they have been ordered to do so by the Supreme Court.
He won last time when everyone wrote him off. We shouldn't make the same mistake again.
He's not just a GOP candidate, he is the champion of grifters and fearful white people. I have lots of people who live near me with trump paraphernalia outside their houses and prominently displayed in their places of business. They are so invested in him that logic takes a back seat to the need to win.
All it takes is enough people who aren't fully committed Trump voters in swing states finding it difficult to vote, or ending up not voting out of apathy. Or those states picking electors who will give the votes to Trump regardless of who wins the vote. A Trump victory can't be ruled out even with what should be several major disqualifying factors running against him. That's more an indictment of America than a credit to the strength of his candidacy, frankly.
I dunno I still see this helping Democrats in the end. R will give him the nomination with all his fans proclaiming with great sureness that a presently campaigning former president who is trying to be re-elected cannot be convicted, then BOOM he gets convicted <6 months prior to the election. Then what?
My thoughts exactly.
@[email protected] mentioned that there are behind-the-scenes machinations to disrupt the process, and that's a very valid concern, but I don't see how it could be close enough to make a difference though if Trump is convicted of any charges that have been brought.
I've been wrong before though.
Don't forget that Trump is now a convicted rapist, as confirmed by the judge in his E Jean Carroll case. Close to half of the US population is willing to vote for a convicted rapist. Now tell me democracy is not in peril in the United States with a straight face.
That's not really true. The E Jean Carroll case found him liable for defamation in a civil case. The standard was lower than for a criminal conviction (just as OJ lost his civil case but was not convicted of murder).
Furthermore, Trump basically accepted that he was liable for defamation, but not necessarily guilty of rape. That was enough for the judge, so he did not have to "confirm" anything else.
Actually, the judge commented directly in a written response, that yes, the jury did find that Trump raped Carroll. https://newrepublic.com/post/174448/judge-e-jean-carroll-case-yes-donald-trump-rapist
You're kind of both right and both wrong. Trump was not literally convicted of rape, that's true. On the otherhand the defamation he was found guilty of was saying the E Jean Carroll was lying about him raping her. One logically follows from the other. You do raise a good point though in that the burden of proof in this case was lower.
At the very least we can say it is highly likely Trump is a rapist based on his conviction (plus the various comments he has been caught making such as his infamous "grab em by the pussy" remark).
Actually, Trump was explicitly found NOT liable for rape, but for "sexual abuse" in the E Jean Carroll case. This was a question that was asked of the jury, and they said that they had not proven that he raped her.
That said, I fully believe he did rape her and do agree with your assertion that it is still likely that he's a rapist. However, it is still factually inaccurate to say he's a "convicted rapist" or even that he was found liable for rape because those have specific legal meanings.
In general, when someone refuses to contest an allegation then nobody will determine whether the allegation is true. There are reasons to do this even if the allegation is false. For example, it might be too expensive to litigate. Or in defending yourself against one charge, you might have to reveal additional information that you don't want brought to light.
In other words, nobody found Trump guilty of lying. For all we know, the judge and jury thought Trump was telling the truth. But legally, they were forced to presume he defamed Carroll because Trump refused to contest the allegations. The only thing the court had to decide was what the damages would be if Carroll was telling the truth. Which automatically became the actual damages.
That said, it's entirely reasonable for you to suspect he committed rape based on other evidence. But the court verdict itself neither supports nor refutes your suspicion.
Realistically Trump would have at least attempted to defend himself if he was actually innocent barring worry about being forced to reveal even more incriminating evidence (which for the purposes of this conversation would actually be worse). The only other reasonable explanation I could see applying would be if he just didn't care, that he felt the judgment would be small enough he could effectively ignore it, and that he knew his base wouldn't care because they never believe he does anything wrong. That still seems to run counter to his usual behavior though and would demonstrate a level of calculation that literally Trumps entire life has shown him incapable of, although maybe for once he actually listened to one of his advisors.
While the court case isn't absolute proof of his guilt, it does weigh very heavily in favor of it. I think it's highly misleading to say it neither supports nor refutes the allegations of rape. It absolutely supports those allegations, it just doesn't unequivocally prove them.
The problem is they've lost touch with reality. They refuse to believe anything that paints "their side" in a bad light and instead choose to believe in vast conspiracies to frame everyone. To their world view there's a cabal of rich powerful liberals that control all media and government departments around the world and they're constantly working to frame or eliminate conservatives.
They literally don't believe Trump has ever done anything wrong in his life and that everything he has been accused or even convicted of is fake. Any reports even suggesting his involvement in anything negative are fake and part of the massive conspiracy.
There's literally no way to reason with them as they can simply choose to ignore anything they don't like and chalk it up to the "liberal conspiracy" probably while muttering something about George Soros and Bill Gates.
Many of them literally believe without irony that Democrats drink the blood of young children to stay youthful forever. Feeding off their adrenochrome.
Sure the people they're voting for aren't very good at all. But in their minds they're better than adrenochrome vampires. The problem is most of them have no contact with reality. And nothing will sway their minds once they've been made up. Literally made up
in their mind
Unlikely
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