this post was submitted on 09 Mar 2024
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No it won't.
240 million grandmas, cheapskate businesses, and cash-strapped public schools will continue to use whatever operating system their computers already have, forever, until they break, security implications be damned.
Windows ~~10~~ XP
Took this picture a couple of days ago:
JSYK a lot of embedded devices use XP and 7, and some of those manufacturers pay for extended support. The military also pays for extended support for XP
But yeah, most of those devices are not patched and vulnerable AF.
I always laugh at, after being in the military and a government employee, things being marketed as military grade. So what, it runs on windows server 2003 and hasn't been in production for 20 years?
From what little I've seen, there's a divide between old and new tech.
Like how headset visual tracking for attack copters was a thing already back when Nintendo released the Virtual Boy, alongside the fact that there is still equipment in service running software that had to be millennium bug patched.
My mother-in-law ran an Army reserve center in the 1990s. They were still using DOS once XP came out because the Army wouldn't pay for the upgrade.
I was aware of that, but had imagined that newer machines would have slowly migrated to something else. I'm also always astonished by the fact these are running full OSes.
No manufacturer wants to take the risk to reinvent a wheel that may be less secure.
I mean, yeah it would be ideal of the manufacturer created their own OS but I also know that nearly everyone hires the cheapest, least skilled devs for projects like this.
And not all of them are full OSs, XP had a bunch of creative ways you could remove system components to make basically a kiosk with almost no other functions.
i saw a kiosk once booting opensuse
This is a huge business opportunity for someone with the know-how. They should offer a consulting service that does the following:
Offer a support contract that severely undercuts anything Microsoft is ~~gouging~~ selling. Offer basic training, too.
Anyone who does that can make bank.
Would also need to get a burner phone number w/ answering machine to take calls from 240 million grandmas, cheapskate businesses and cash-strapped public schools for any & all tech support questions until the end of time, because if there was an issue with system stability in any way whatsoever, or if the router went down or the printer stopped working, they'd assume it was the fault of 'the guy who changed everything'.
Linux is great & everything, but this sounds like a recipe for utter disaster, not a way to make an easy buck.
I can't agree with this more. People like to sell Linux as a magic bullet, but it does not and will not everything everyone needs without maintenance and people really like to hand wave or downplay that need.
Sure, you could find a solution for what they're using now. What happens when they need something else and they're so tech illiterate that they don't even know what you did to their machine? They wouldn't even know how to install new software, and if they did, they wouldn't know they need to click the Linux version, etc. It's not always about feasibility and available options, it's often about the fact that people just won't fucking know what to do. Even if you assume there are enough options available, they won't know how to do so.
And every step Microsoft takes to shoot themselves in the foot, and every step Linux takes to make this easier, everyone comes screaming about how much this could change things.
But until Linux has a HUGE market share - like in the 30-70 percent range - developers are not going to take it seriously and alleviate this process. Even with how well MacOS does, this is not even a solved problem entirely there - there are still hang ups and still software that doesn't get released for mac. Linux would have to pass where Apple is today for this to become remotely accessible to an every day person.
And even THEN there's the question of different Linux distros.
Most people only need internet access. Look at Chromebooks.
While I don't really disagree, look at the market share of Chromebooks. If "most people" only needed internet access, "most people" would be on Chromebooks by now. It's not like they're unknown anymore.
Not really how the market works. Inertia is huge, brand image (Apple) is huge, social pressure (Apple) is huge, simply not knowing is huge. The newcomer always has the disadvantage to get converts. (Not to mention many of the people that only need internet have iPads only.)
Yes, but Chromebooks are far from "newcomers" these days. They've been out a while. Many people who grew up using them in schools are now making their own purchasing decisions, etc.
I lived in this town and there was this"computer and pawn" place. They did this to people's computers. I constantly had people come into the computer place I worked at very confused. Not knowing why they needed a password to install things, where is Microsoft office, how do I print, etc. Most of these people didn't have the money to put windows back on, but, those that did, did real quick. All this did was scare people away. If we started replacing Linux on people's computers it needs to come with a intro tech support plan and a short intro class explaining the basics.
At this point the people that benefit the most easily are those who only need email, Web browsing and or are old. People who work off their machine are going to use Windows and that former demographic usually just use their phones or a tablet now. At least in the US
Yeah hard pass.
Will I take advantage of the heavily discounted used market this causes? Maybe. (Assuming they manage to actually convince people they should move to 11, which also sucks.) But there's good reason not to be IT for people who can't manage it themselves. It's a huge headache.
Easy fix: don't offer support
More expensive easy fix: contract with a call center in India to do "support" for you.
Support is a major cost/pain point, that Linux pushers just don't get.
They've never worked in enterprise (or hell, even in SMB IT). Moving from windows doesn't make sense. It's a lot if cost, up front, to take on lots of risk.
I'm not sure Linux will ever significantly compete with Windows for the desktop. At a minumim it would require a single shell to become dominant, in addition to all the compatibility issues you mention.
Then there's management: Windows has SCOM, with a well-established app packaging/distribution model, settings config, user management (AD/Exchange), etc, etc.
Linux is fantastic as a base OS for other stuff. Like Proxmox/TrueNAS, or to use as a server with containerized services. There's a million ways Linux is the answer, a much better one, than Windows - largely in the server/services hosting realm
@FonsNihilo @kescusay this is painfully true. I remember some well meaning techies wired up an entire lab for the school district once, included free repurposed PCs running Linux. Didn't take long before the district paid HP to take all of it away and give us the crappiest speced machines tax money could buy. But hey, that deal gave the football team money to AstroTurf the field (with a donation from HP)🤦♂️
Your post reminded me. I worked tech support for years at an ISP and we would not help people with Linux systems. Only Windows or Macs. Android on a cell but only help with connecting to Wi-Fi and very basic settings up email if they used the ISP email.
I think your info is out of date, at least from what I see. Schools are going to Chromebooks because that's all the budget allows. I think it's going to be scary when these kids enter the workforce and can't use Windows office.
See, the key flaw in your plan is expecting companies to shell out to upgrade their systems. Putting aside organizations who's infrastructure can't realistically transfer to a new system without scrapping it entirely, pretty much every business will run their systems until they have literally no other choice (ie it is functionally unusable/affecting sales) instead of "losing money" upgrading. MS stopping updates won't push them over that line, at least not for a while.
Cousin Vinny gives them a little taste of ransomware and reminds them your upgrade plan is actually a great deal
Meh, ransomware won't really drive an upgrade plan. That's what backup is for.
Any business incompetent enough to get owned by ransomware without a recovery plan isn't exactly the type with $ to spare for a migration.
I mean, yeah, if ethics are no barrier, you could probably make it work, hah. That said, there are much better money makers at that point than being tech support for businesses to switch to Linux.
That’s actually a decent idea if people are using boilerplate windows software. Unfortunately institutional software is unlikely to cross over, and even if similar software can be found to replace private users’ needs, there is going to be resistance to change. This doesn’t even touch anyone using specialized software. The resistance will be commensurate with the differences in workflow and usage between the windows and Linux software.
I mean, the whole point is people don’t want to change. The only way you’d win people over easily is directly cloning their windows setup.
Companies won't pay. Even SMB.
There's way too much stuff that only runs on windows, their users are used to windows.
You're telling them to spend a lot of money to transition, and take on a lot of risk.
It just ain't gonna happen.
Look at the current VMware issue to see what companies will do.
I feel the issue is if you're successful with this idea and get on radar of Microsoft, they will make sure to snatch away all deals from you by bidding even lower. They have money to lose. Small firms generally don't.
ROFL, and for a half of that cost and none of the risk, companies will just drop in new windows computers and keep the status quo...
My 76 y/o spouse loves Linux Mint. The 2017-bought desktop was deemed insufficient for Windows 11 and now runs Mint.
If all they use is a web browser and solitaire then putting them on Linux is super easy. Got my dad on Mint for years now. I recommend KPatience for solitaire needs.
yeah, other than the obvious "haha-ing in Linux" (which.. I also use Linux) - the REAL answer is people will just keep using the outdated Windows until THAT computer dies it's natural death.
Also third world countries where people can't afford to spend their yearly salary on a mouse.
When that time comes, would that create a period of insane amounts of scams?
Yes.
I wish you were right. Instead what we will likely see is an increase in year to year E-waste until the majority is phased out into land fills.
I dunno, computers aren't like phones where your provider is offering you incentives to chuck your old one every 2 years. There'll be an increase of waste from businesses for sure, but I think most people don't really pay attention to their security updates and will just keep using their pcs until they need a newer one for personal reasons (playing newer games, old one bricked, etc)
0patch offers microcode patching for EOL windows systems, I have a subscription for my Win7 gaming box and will be getting one for my win10 daily driver, because FUCK win11.
It's a good company, they've won several bounties from Microsoft for 0-day fixes and have had their code published in official microsoft updates.