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The point is nobody can know that with any certainty. All these preliminary graphs are helpful to campaign strategists, but do you know the number of Uncommitted voters who will ultimately hold their nose and vote for Biden anyway? Or who will change their mind completely? I certainly don't.
Sending a message in the primary ≠ doing the strategic thing in the general.
Well we still have to make decisions and decide strategy in the face of uncertainty. Its a yes or no question that I asked, and you can answer it with a yes or a no.
Do you think Biden can stick with his current approach to Gaza and Israel and win the general election?
There's a third answer: I don't know. That's my answer.
If your plan is strategy, it doesn't matter what my opinion is. Assume the worst outcome and work as if you can change it.
Hiding behind uncertainty isn't answering the question.
To answer otherwise would be lying. "I don't know" is the only appropriate answer when you don't know.
Your dislike of uncertainty is not my problem.
Its not a dislike, its a recognition that in the real world, we have to make decisions in spite of uncertainty.
In the real world, we have to make decisions based on incomplete information all time.
Sure, but that doesn't mean this is one of those times. Giving my opinion on if Biden's current trajectory will tank his chances is tantamount to nothing. And so I say again:
I. Don't. Know. I am not obligated to abstain from intellectual honesty just to satisfy your curiosity.