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Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don't follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn't going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Not sure where you're getting that. FiveThirtyEight's presidential model doesn't solely rely on polling, but it's the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right
That was an in person speech I attended by the unofficial god of polling, Angus Reid.
Don't know what you heard in a speech, but Angus Reid's own organization accurately predicted the popular vote that year:
https://angusreid.org/electoral-record-continued/
And his group was the outlier.
Anyways I was sharing firsthand knowledge here that isnt acknowledged on the web. That speech has no public recording.
No polling agency talks about why the uncertainty used to be +/-3% and its now often +/- 6 to 10%.
You're just looking for irrelevant gotchas.
It's not exactly a "gotcha" when we just have to take your word for it that this happened.
A: Makes a claim
B: Requests source.
A: You're just looking for irrelevant gotchas. Anyway, she lives in Canada.
I mean, you might be totally correct and relating a factual experience with total objectivity. But you gotta admit that's what it sounds like.
Got a source for that "everyone was expecting a Romney win" thing?
Yeah, an in person speech by Angus Reid.
Sources are usually verifiable.
Yeah, sorry. This wasn't a public speech, but I was there in person. There might be a recording of it, but again, not public.
Cool. So one guy at a speech delivered in private that you can't verify in any way said that everyone expected Romney to win.
No, he said why the polling was off and why most polls were projecting a Romney win.
Romney lost once the binders full of women comment happened. Similar to Hillary's deplorables comment.