this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2023
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based on mastodon servers blowing up when people "left" twitter, like 90% of new users will be gone in a couple weeks
To replace Twitter you need public figures, celebrities, sports teams, etc. to move to the new site, unfortunately I don't see them moving to a federated system like mastadon. Reddit would be easier to replace, as you follow communities rather than content publishers.
The Twitter migration will probably be to Meta's new app once it comes out, it'd be an easy port since most of the accounts people follow on Twitter already have the Meta products.