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Why do we even have to have this conversation in the first place (slrpnk.net)

submitted 10 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 10 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

… some superstition about the “incumbent advantage.”

We probably agree overall but I gotta point out: in political science, it’s definitely not considered superstition. If it were just throwing salt over the shoulder, we wouldn’t be able to consistently verify the hypothesis. It remains one of the stronger electoral advantages for outcome prediction.

That tangarine palpatine lost in spite of this advantage is more a testament to his lack of popularity among the general electorate. And btw one of the strongest known DISadvantages is having lost an election previously. The quants will have a field day with this one either way.

TL;DR Incumbency advantage is real.