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However the states likely to agree are the ones that reliably vote Democrat, and the GOP has only won one popular vote in the last 30 years. So again, it won't make a difference.
The comment I was responding to at the root of this said:
And my response was to point out that no, it wouldn't. It doesn't. It's still difficult, sure, but it doesn't require a constitutional convention to change.
Also, if you actually look it up, there are enough states that have already enacted the compact or are "pending" to get it done. So it's closer to being done than you are implying.
Of the ones that are 'done', they were already consistently democrat and haven't had to vote against their usual leaning.
Of the ones that are marked as 'pending', it is very optimistic to presume that is on its way to anything. It merely requires that some state legislature person proposed it. Maine is "Pending" but has already failed 7 prior attempts over the past 15 years. Many of those "pending" have been "in committee" for about a year. No way it takes a year to seriously bake such a simplistic proposal, it's dead in committee, just waiting for an election cycle for it to be official.
The reason this is doomed to fail is you'd need states to join that explicitly enjoy political advantage from the current system. A die-hard "red" state will not sign on to a system that basically hands the presidential election to whoever the northeast and west coast vote for. A swing state that may be more ok with a democrat winning consistently would still not want to cede the political influence afforded to them by virtue of being a "swing" state.
All of that can be true and this is still easier than a constitutional amendment.
That is all that I was saying from the start. It remains the case. You don't need a constitutional convention to make this change, there is an easier way to do it.
It will. To change the constitution you need 2/3 of the states. For this plan to work, you need only 50.1% of the electoral votes to agree. Doesn't matter if they primarily swing democrat, it just has to be a majority.
Not a single "swing" or red state will go through with it. It may be numerically closer, but ideologically, it's not going to happen. The red states know their favored candidate would lose, the swing states would forfeit their leverage to basically "go with whatever the northeast and west coast say". Since this requires holdouts to surrender some measure of political power they have, won't happen.