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Texas is one of the few self-sufficient Republican states. (eg. They contribute more than they receive from federal funds.) They’d survive.
That being said, their economy would be fucked because all the US trade agreements suddenly would disappear. Look how badly that affected the UK with Brexit, and then multiply it by 100.
All the tech companies in Texas would leave. As would most Democrats with the means to do it. There goes your highly educated workforce (Democrats tend to be more highly educated based on demographic data).
The US military would leave. And then there goes all the defense contractors too.
They wouldn't be self-sufficient on their own. They're only self sufficient because they're part of the US.
I’m a Texan and a Democrat. I would be out of here so fucking fast. I’d rather work at McDonald’s in California than live in an independent Texas Republic.
I wish I could join, but I'll take a role as a saboteur.
Also, you're forgetting an important factor: food. Texas is not part of the breadbasket, it is not known for its agricultural produce, and the amount of good soil is not enough to feed the population.
Assuming Texas dips into its slush fund to buy things like grain, it would be flat broke in a decade, with only oil fields and beef to trade (they'd lose their offshore oil rigs).
And from what I’ve heard they use fossil water for their crops which is salinating their good soil
This point right here so many Texas cities entire economy is based on the military industrial complex.
Like they would let Texas take any classified parts of those bases. Things would get really interesting.
I agree with your second paragraph, which actually invalidates the conclusion of the first one.
Yeah, I guess survive vs thrive is the point I was trying to make. Texas produces enough food and energy to be self sufficient, but their global economic position would crash.
Except their grid is fucked up, possibly beyond repair at this point.
Their economy would be fucked because they'd need to draw up an entire economy overnight. What is a US dollar to a non-American? What does a Texas bank look like, and how does it function differently from a US bank? Do the companies currently operating nationally across the US have the right or capability of operating in New Texas? What forms must they fill out to file their taxes? Where goes the money that was previously pouring into the Houston area due to NASA jobs that suddenly don't exist there? What about the money in San Antonio, Waco, and other towns with military bases suddenly drying up? What about the fact that the federal government owns the land those military bases are built on? What do the private companies who operate phone lines and Internet backbones do with the physical media installed in the ground which they presumably own?
The people who are cheering on secession have no fucking clue about this stuff. They lack the ability to perform a reality check. They don't even know how to question their ideas, and they don't have any independent thoughts. Their minds are controlled entirely by their political and religious shepherds.
The politicians who lead them on with the idea they might get away with it don't need to answer the questions. They say and do these things because the people who put them in power think of the argument for secession as the equivalent of a schoolyard fight. "Oh yeah, well if you won't kick the transes out of the kickball game then I'm just gonna take the ball and go play kickball over there by myself." It's stupid and childish and completely unrealistic.
I hope I'm right that Abbott, et al, have thought of all this and are only grandstanding, allowing their collective lobotomy of a voter base to rabble rouse, and won't actually go for this. It would be an absolute bloodbath when they all starve or get summarily executed as the full thrust of the most expensive military budget in the known universe blasts in to establish order.
I hope so too, but there's always the possibly that the situation gets out of hand and Abbott and his goons lose control of the populace and start a chain reaction they can't stop.
All it world take is for one of the many unregulated militias to engage with federal forces over the razor-wire dispute.
Other "militias" see this as the start of the war that Abbott has been promising them and follow suit.
Then you have multiple engagements that require a response from the US government.
Even if it doesn't break down into a full "civil war", people could die and tensions could greatly escalate.
He's playing with fire, and if he isn't very careful he could easily fumble it and make a mess he's not prepared to deal with.
I'm not sure they're self-sufficient anymore. If I remember correctly, that one study was from 20 years ago and was done by a right-wing think tank, and the trend for Texas was overall negative. They stopped that study basically right before Texas started breaking even.
They'd be conquered by Mexico in a hot second.
The cartels would easily take over.