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oops
So this is a good news story.
Mmm.
Hopefully.
Unless you think war is inevitable.
The current Chinese doctrine in a theoretical conflict with America relies heavily on saturation of missile defenses to take out things like carrier groups.
If they didn't know they'd have a 10% failure rate or whatever it could have completely invalidated their tactics.
But it you accept both that war is inevitable and that China will be the aggressor it would have been better for them not to discover this and thus be unprepared for the conflict, like we see with Russia and Ukraine.
War isn't inevitable. Back in the cold war it was averted multiple times, and the USSR had a much more closed economy than China's. China going to war with NATO would lose them all their largest trading partners.
They don't want a war with NATO. But they might want to invade Taiwan which pretty much everybody in NATO kind of agrees is sort of China's anyway. Only a handful of nations recognise Taiwan as sovereign, and they ain't coming to the rescue.
We don't really want them to take Taiwan, but the only bargaining tool we have to stop them is the threat of stopping trade. And as far as I can tell, the main reason we don't recognise Taiwan is because we don't want China to stop trade either.
No one builds a trillion dollar navy without intending to use it, but sure.
It might not happen.
In a world that solves its energy crisis and stops climate change.
Surely they intend to use it the same way the US does - projecting force to cement soft power?
And who, exactly, do you think they can project force against?
Taiwan, Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Australia, Thailand, Myanmar.
Do I need to keep going?
The key for them, really, is being able to ensure they have naval access through the strait of Malacca
Uh huh.
And who are most of them, particularly their most pressing territorial claims, allied with?
Yes, those things create friction with the US.
However, I'm sure China will grow to use their navy to project control of their Belt-And-Road initiatives. You bet they'll be working to prop up governments that will reap the profit from their investments down the line, than allow rebellious groups or hostile neighbouring states to threaten those interests.
Taiwan, according to them