this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2023
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I believe the failed Twitter-to-Mastodon exodus made spez and his yesmen cocky. I hope they underestimated how much more tech savvy the average redditor is - especially the nexus poster, who keep the community afloat.
I think they overestimated how much engagement the average reditter provides. Most people are consuming content, but not contributing any or posting comments or clicking ads or anything. 90% of engagement is driven by like 20% of users or some shit like that.
I suspect twitter is similar. But a difference between Reddit and twitter is how easily power users can migrate.
On twitter, you follow people. Power users were often cautious cause they didn't want to lose their followers and non power users wanted to be where the power users are.
But on Reddit, you follow communities. For power users, there's few direct followers to lose and for non power users, as long as there's enough content, it doesn't matter much who created it.
Another important difference is that reddit concepts map better onto lemmy than twitter onto mastodon. Additionally, one important aspect of twitter is the proximity to journalists, celebrities and politicians. Reddit doesn't really have that (except for /r/iama).
I think the issue is that the alternative needs to be simmering for a bit before people make the jump.
When Digg went south Reddit had already been an alternative for a while at that point.
The problem with Lemmy and Mastodon is that they're just not quite there yet. Yet.