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That simulation, so to appear believable from the inside, would have to be based on the real universe, or would look to simplistic//trivial from the outside. So, this pushes the question to a more complex situation, but doesn't seem to help to resolve it. Right ?
Would it? What if the real universe is nothing like the simulation? Couldn't a completely unknown species have created the simulation and just imagined a fantasy world inhabited by strange little creatures called humans?
From my viewpoint it is very difficult to imagine an alternate universe encompassing cosmological observables widely different from ours which would lead to such deep scientific theories and controversies as we have inside of it. On the other hand if there was such a complex and rich universe, where all this would be trivial to imagine//make//simulate, then, making it would not seem to be worth a simulation. Finally, this simulated universe theory was often cited for the purpose of some advance archaeological work (implying fidelity to the original). So, I am not saying your hypothesis is impossible, only I view it as improbable.
On the other hand if there was such a complex and rich universe, where all this would be trivial to imagine//make//simulate, then, making it would not seem to be worth a simulation.
I don't get this, are you saying that if it's so simple to do, why would anyone do it?
I don't understand that conclusion at all.
Think of this scenario: an alien race had no concept of "Art" and they found a child's scribbles. It's completely blowing their mind because nobody had ever thought of doing that. Some other alien hearts about it and doesn't believe it because, "if it was so easy for them to make Art, why would one waste good talents on scribbles?"
What if designing simulated universes is just something kids do for science projects, and we are the result of the imagination of a particularly demented one?
Still possible, but now I will just say that I don't like it. Maybe you wouldn't like it yourself. Oh yes, there is also Occam's rasor saying the simplest explanation, etc...