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Up front, I broadly support almost any aid short of NBC weapons to Ukraine. Territorial exchange by invasion needs to be non-negotiable, and Ukraine should be the one who decides if/when they’ve had enough war, not us or Russia
JD Vance is reprehensible and talking out of both sides, but there’s some truth to this idea. If you look back at the deeper history of Ukraine, the Donbas wasn’t a part of Ukraine under Kievan Russ or the precursor dynasty. The area is very ethnically Russian & Russophone (absolutely artificially boosted by prior pseudo-genicidal policy of Russification, as also in Poland) and if you look at the census data, the electoral history, and where the separatists draw recruits from, it’s very split east/south-east of the Dnipro river.
If the government in Kyiv (rightfully) refuses to give territory and end to the war, they are only left with Russian capitulation or a NK/SK style permanent standoff over their own DMZ. The survey data indicates the Ukranian people are willing to go all the way to Crimea, which is mirrored by Kyiv policy, but viable is that for Ukraine militarily? Frontline progress is steady but slow, and Ukraine shares a lot of the skewed age demographics with Russia that make a long term war difficult on manpower alone.