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But isn't that kind of the point? Their "experience in Iraq and Afghanistan" is what's telling them this is a stupid idea that only creates problems and solves nothing.
I think that's oversimplifying the American experience: occupation doesn't generate goodwill and lay the groundwork for an occupier-friendly local government, but it does keep the area relatively quiet and secure. America wanted goodwill and a friendly local government; eventually we gave up when that didn't happen. Israel wants to keep the area relatively quiet and secure. They can do that if they're willing to pay the high cost indefinitely.
Gaza isn't really comparable to Afghanistan though, since it's so much smaller. It's more comparable to Kabul, which relative to the rest of Afghanistan was thriving. I'm pretty sure most Kabul residents preferred life before the Taliban.
I would call it likely, but I think an occupation and nation building is way more possible in Gaza than it ever could have been in Afghanistan.