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Who's winning the war in Ukraine? (lemmy.ml)

submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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The media won't give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that's true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

PS: I realize there are many casualties on both sides and I am not trying to downplay the suffering, but I am curious as to how it is going for Ukraine. Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it. Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it's convenience a free and democratic country.

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[–] [email protected] 37 points 1 year ago (2 children)

It's mostly a stalemate for now. The dam destruction helped Russia funnel Ukraine counterattack on its biggest fortifications, so not much progress for Ukraine in the south. Russia resumed its offensive in the Dombass and Aavdiivka is starting to look like the new Bhakmut.

It's an attrition war and Russia is losing like 2 or 3 times as much as Ukraine in men or material. But Russia has much more men than Ukraine. Russian morale is very low, but Ukraine support from the west is under big pressure, both from Russian propaganda and conservative/fascist political parties. This last one is the real war happening now.

Next year will be important because of the elections in the US. What happen on the battlefield is still to be seen.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Economically, Russia has also been hit hard. NATO has also expanded, which is a blow to Russia.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

Yes, but Russia is also supported by Iran and China. And there's no sign of political collapse in Russia.

I'm not saying Russia is winning. It would take them a millenia to conquer Ukraine at this pace. But I think currently they are only buying time to wait for US election. After that, and depending on whether a breakthrough happen or not before that, peace talk may happen, or not. Time will tell.

[–] JohnDClay 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Ukraine has actually established a bridge head in the south now, so they might eventually start attacking that direction. The water level has long since receded.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Yes. And it is a great victory. But at this pace it would still take a century to get all the territories back, and winter is ahead. I am very hopeful that the beach head will lead to something better, but that still has to happen. Meanwhile, nothing much happened on the grand scale.