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For the markets daily volume 90% is traded off market without affecting the price due to pfof and bs exemptions from market makers that allows them to very effectively naked short stock for "liquidity". Couple that up with nearly every big firm using the Aladin algorithm and you can make the market do what ever you want granted a story is going which supports your narrative. I'll believe we had a soft landing when equity swap data reporting is not getting continuously delayed hiding true market positions. Also don't forget we have a plunge protection team who's job is to short or buy stocks with taxpayer dollars to pretend the market is stable. Also don't forget this started before covid.
Do you work in finance?
But what does this have to do with the rest of what I said? You seem to be arguing that the market is a reflection of the economy, just some secret market that no one knows about.
I'm explaining that the market you base your health of an economy on is manipulated to all hell. Has abandoned most of the principles that made it a reflection of the economy and is still being paraded as if it's some useful metric. Aladin and most other market algos are trained on prior patterns and predict their reappearance, have enough firms using that system and its able to predict its own moves. I.e the reason they can predict some semblance of the market is because most of your market works on the same trading signals and data points. Allowing it to react to its own interpretation of the market that was created by its own signals. Allow market makers exemptions to short selling for liquidity purposes and the ability to print to the tape the trades that are favorable to them, and you can swing a market any which way you want.
No I'm pointing out that the metric in which we base our economies health is pretty much a show built on confirmation bias from using systems that predict and reinforce biased data points.
No one here is basing the health of the economy on the market. This has never been true, even pre automated trading. However, sometimes the markets do react to good news in the general economy, as they are not completely decoupled, and this is what I'm talking about.
I'll try again, do you work in finance?