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Trump being the GOP front-runner is great news for Democrats.
The only thing better would be if Trump tried spinning off onto a 3rd party. Dividing the conservative vote would be the best thing to happen to this country in decades.
The bigger issue for Republicans isn't really Trump, but Trumpism. Let's say that Trump dropped out tomorrow and didn't run as a third party candidate. Apart from pigs flying and Satan having a snowball fight, the Republicans would need to pick a new frontrunner.
The person who would likely have the best chance of winning the general election would be Nikki Haley. This isn't to say that I like her or agree with her positions (I definitely don't). I just think that she would be the Republican candidate that would have the best shot in the 2024 general election.
Nikki isn't going to survive the primary, though. The Republican primaries are all about how far right you can go. They don't cheer moderate conservative views, they cheer far right views. Basically, they want a candidate who will go right up to the "this country should only be run by straight, white, Christian men" and then dip their toe over that line. And this is just getting bolder so soon they'll only vote for someone who is willing to erase the line and arrest anyone who says that there should be a line.
What happens when a "Only Straight White Christian Men" candidate meets the general electorate, though? They get trounced - especially if they're up against a moderate Democrat. (I lean progressive, but I'm enough of a realist to know that moderate Democrats are the best bet to win in some areas.)
So even if Trump were out of the picture, the vicious cycle of "we need someone Republicans even further to the right" will make them less and less electable. Of course, Republicans won't give up power willingly so they'll rely more and more on gerrymandering, disenfranchisement via voter suppression, and other dirty tactics to keep their minority rule.
Definitely. Trump's own ego compels him to run for nomination but by running and winning he increases the chances of losing the election and going to prison with nobody to pardon him.
That said the Democrats need to be very concerned about a 3rd party called "No Labels" that masquerades as a left leaning party but is strongly suspected to be a spoiler party orchestrated by the right. Don't be surprised if Joe Manchin sleazes his way into the limelight by running as their candidate.
2016 taught me to not be too confident, but does anyone actually like Manchin?
Moderate to left types hate him and he has a D next to his name, so GOP voters see him as satanic. Am I missing something?
It would be a blessing if he did run since as you say Manchin is not a popular person inside the Democratic party or in general.
calling west "dumb" or "dumber" belies your own ignorance. he's an ivy league educated prodigy.
He wouldn't be the only spoiler candidate this year. We already have dumb and dumber running - RFK Jr and West.
Every last one of these pieces of shit has Republican (and thus Russian) connections.
Hopefully. I remember hearing something similar back in 2016.