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There's a saying the fall of empires is slow until it's not. The fact of the matter is the US isn't all that different from those that fell before it, the British, Soviets, and French all seemed to be on top of the world right until they weren't. All empires are on a timer from their birth, they all fall eventually and in the modern age it could come from anywhere.

My personal bet is that the source will be economic in nature, Trump's tariffs will cause base level economic issues which will effect basically everyone. You'll probably get a block of states who will declare independence possibly with international backing triggering a domino effect not to dissimilar from the Soviets.

I don't think the stock market or really anything else is really notable, as you said it's largely automated meaning it's pretty much disconnected from reality at this point making it a piss poor indicator of ground level issues.