this post was submitted on 01 Mar 2025
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Through the whole of 2024 the Russia was advancing faster than anyone expected.
During that year, they managed to occupy 0.7 % of Ukraine's territory. Which basically rounds to zero.
the Russia now works mainly without military vehicles. Even if there was a complete collapse of the Ukrainian front, the Russia would be less able to exploit it than they were able to advance in northern parts of Ukraine in spring 2022. I'd say that the best the Russia can do is to advance about ten times as much as in 2024. That is, they could maybe occupy another 7% of Ukraine's territory. USA can of course try helping by lifting the sanctions, but EU won't coöperate with that.
If USA blocks Ukraine from getting air defence missiles, the Ukrainian electricity distribution will be in deep trouble. Not the end of the world right now, when it's already spring in Ukraine, but the next winter might get seriously bad even if the Russia has already lost by that point.
If the EU stays supporting Ukraine, it won't lose before the Russia does. But it might be in for its most painful year in this war 😢
💛💙 Дякую, Україно! 💛💙