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NASA just changed the odds of asteroid YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 yet again (www.livescience.com)

submitted 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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NASA increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, on Tuesday, but they're now back down to 1 in 67, or 1.5%.

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[–] threelonmusketeers 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

It's a shame you're being downvoted for genuine questions.

I thought we knew most of the stuff in our solar system to pinpoint accuracy already.

We know where all the big rocks are. Those smaller than a few hundred meters are much harder to spot.

A telescope in mars orbit vs a telescope in solar orbit vs a telescope in earth orbit could get you position and velocity very accurately id think.

It definitely could, but we don't really have astrometry telescopes beyond earth orbit. I can't wait until launch costs get low enough for us to yeet Hubble-class or Arecibo-class telescopes all over the solar system, and maybe even do interferometry between them.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Thanks. Oh is this not “big”? Do we at least have the dinosaur killers mapped out 🤞

[–] threelonmusketeers 1 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

Oh is this not “big”?

Not compared to the dinosaur killer. Chicxulub was around 10 kilometers wide, while 2024 YR4 is estimated to be ~100 meters wide. A hundred-fold increase in linear size roughly corresponds to million-fold increases in volume, mass, and energy. 2024 YR4 could wipe out a city, but nothing close to the effects of Chicxulub.

Do we at least have the dinosaur killers mapped out 🤞

Yeah, I think we've catalogued those pretty extensively, and pinned down their orbits well enough to conclude that none of them pose a significant threat in the next century or so.