this post was submitted on 08 Feb 2025
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Idk, Lemmy also inreased it's userbase by a factor of 30, mainly from a single event. It had like 1,500 MAU before summer 2023 and now we're at 45k. So I'm not sure what to make of this. I kinda agree though, it'll stabilize at a lower number than during a hype period. And Pixelfed aside, the more popular places on the Fediverse seem to be stagnating right now. I hope we've learned from the past and drama that happened and we don't need to repeat the same things.
Dunno, from Fediverse Observer, it looks like lemmy and mastodon are growing slowly over the last couple weeks. (the mastodon stats look a little weird tho -- there's a plummet on Jan 30th that looks like a data collection artifact.)
There has definitely been an uptick in sign-ups - first around the Inauguration (despite being a UK instance) and then with Reddit's pornmaggedon. In between it didn't drop back down to the old rate in between. db0 have seen a.massive spike recently too.
Though, I'd argue if we were awesome and had something truly nice to offer, we'd grow on our own. And not just if someone else messes up and becomes unbearable. But it's complicated.