this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2025
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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CO2 Levels Rose at Record Rate in 2024 - EcoWatch (www.ecowatch.com)
submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Atmospheric CO2 levels rose faster than ever in 2024, according to scientists who say the rise is “incompatible” with Paris Agreement goals.

“Today, governments around the globe spend nine times more making fossil fuels cheaper than they do on making clean energy more affordable for consumers,” Guterres said. “We must tear down these walls.”

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

3.6ppm increase

Even a 0.1ppm increase means more warming. Energy transition had excellent progress this year. Peak emissions in EU and China from electricity could be 2023. For sure in Europe, China may be about tied in 2024, but has drops in oil consumption.

The difference, to cause such extreme warming has to be other factors. Russia industrialization and Ukraine war against it, and forest fires are the obvious emission sources not under control. 2023 was first year where vegetation+soil was a source of emissions instead of a sink. 2024 is probably the same. Energy transition has to accelerate to keep up with these feedback loops, and war, and trade wars, is not a recipe for it.

1.8ppm was target consistent with 1.5C warming.

Absolutely not. Or even if it was for this year, very sharp drops in subsequent years is needed. There is hope for 2.5ppm this next year form vegetation conducivity, but that is still way too high, and above the last 10 year average which also keeps going up.