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this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2025
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It's still possible to trap him in his own words though. He hates to look foolish (as ironic as that may be). Trump has repeatedly demanded that Europe, and every other NATO nation increase their defence spending. This forces him to either back off on the tariffs or back off on that demand. It's a smart play under the circumstances.
How does that force him? He demands unreasonable things. He's an unreasonable man. Pointing this out won't make any difference.
As I said to the other commenter, he's a human being, not an elder God. This "nothing can ever stop Trump, his powers of unreasonableness defy all mortal comprehension" stuff isn't actually helpful.
They've smartly put him in a vice. If he tries to push the tariffs they'll counter by reneging on the agreement to up their military budgets. If he tries to push the military budgets they'll tell him no deal unless he removes the tariffs. He'll try to demand both because he's a child, but at the end of the day the only bargaining tool he knows how to use is bullying, and they've now reconstructed the scenario so that the harder he bullies the less he gets of things he specifically wants. That's why this is a smart play; because they're anticipating his unreasonableness and turning it against him.
It's a smart move and from the EU's point of view it locks Trump in.
The problem is the EU assumes Trump still comes from the beneficial side of nato ... but he comes from the side of putin, china and the US economy, and all of them say hurt nato and the money comes pouring in.
Trump feels pressure to plain get out of nato or do crippling damage to it. He himself just does not know how exactly because the US needs nato's intelligence machine.
Last time he demanded 2% across the board (some were lower, some higher), now that a bunch of countries bolstered spending to 2% or higher he is suddenly shouting I want 5% ... in 2 years he will demand 8% ...
He will just claim, unreasonably, "they can afford it" like he did last time.
I also expect him to demand they buy all weapons in the US, Germany would need to abandon its highly regarded modern tank program, no more Swedish fighter planes or EU designed firearms... The US tried it before with the JSF program, which turned out not quite beneficial for the EU.
At some point I can see the EU forming its own defense pact and mostly ignoring trump shouting into the nato box. But it will have weakened both, and putin sits on his throne and laughs.
Added to this: they do have him cornered on the gas market, if he does keep bullying over tariffs and higher nato payments and breaks agreements they will plainly tell him you will lose all of EU's gas imports to putin. And that will damage his "Drill baby drill" program.
You’re under the mistaken apprehension that Trump cares about logical inconsistency. He does not.
Trump cares very deeply about seeming to never be wrong. This man once sharpie'd in a new path for a hurricane on an official prediction chart.
He's not some eldritch being of unknowable power. He has buttons and they can be pushed. He is, in fact, shockingly easy to manipulate, and this is a smart manipulation.