But are failed launches trackable? My point is that this may not be the first attempt. If their missile systems are anything like everything else in their arsenal, a successful launch is a one off exception.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 hours ago

A failed launch, as in an initially successful launch that went wrong in the air, can afterwards be spotted even on commercial satellite images: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/09/satellite-images-suggest-test-of-russian-super-weapon-failed-spectacularly/ The usa and nato probably know long before those amateur spotters do.

If the rocket fails to launch at all when the button is pressed, then noone will be allowed to know probably. It could be that they tried to launch 10 and only 1 ignited, or maybe there was just the one. Russia isn't going to tell the truth about anything so it's anyone's guess. If it fails to ignite, then I'd expect them to just pack up the rocket again and continue to pretend doing maintenance and have soldiers guarding the stuff.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

They probably are afterwards. Most sat pics trained on that have some kind of image recognition stuff running in the background and they flag that. Apparently that's how that Satan failure was also firstly detected

Edit: I also wouldn't be so sure about the ICBMs being in the same state as everything else.