this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2024
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politics

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Summary

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has named Vice President Kamala Harris as the narrow favorite to win the presidential race on Election Day, shifting from former President Donald Trump for the first time since October 17.

Harris's lead is razor-thin, with FiveThirtyEight’s model showing her winning 50 out of 100 simulations compared to Trump’s 49. Similarly, Nate Silver’s model in The Silver Bulletin also slightly favors Harris, giving her a win in 50.015% of cases.

Both forecasts emphasize the unprecedented closeness of this race, with Pennsylvania as a key battleground.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Anyone who's ever played a dice-based game knows full well how uncertain 50% is.

Warhammer: oh I just need a 4+ to hit, this shouldn't be bad - proceeds to roll nothing but 2s

DnD: I just need an 11 to hit, surely I'll get him this turn - fails, rerolls a fail into another fail

Every time you need it, a coinflip will fail you

[–] neidu3 2 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

I played a lot of D&D back in the day, and while I'm normally not a superstitious person, we did have a dice jail for poorly performing dice. That light blue d20 was a repeat offender.