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Demented Babbling Rapist has 50% of the Vote (lemmy.world)

submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[+] [email protected] -27 points 2 months ago (2 children)

He didn't before Kamala started telling everyone how conservative she is now...

She's better than Biden, absolutely better to trump...

But she's still more conservative than most of the Dem voter base

Republicans use polls of Republican voters, they dont give two shits what Dems want. But Dem politicians keep fucking looking at polls of all voters, and using that to drive policy.

The result is no candidate really represents Dem voters, just the small (but very vocal) conservative wing of the Dem party. One tried to tell me Reagan was further left economically than Obama earlier today, and I think they really believed it.

They're just completely disengaged from other Dem voters, they think because neoliberals politicians still have a stranglehold on party leadership it means they're the majority.

Worst case of running a progressive candidate is they pull another PUMA like in 08 where they tried to get the Republican elected to spite Obama when he beat Hillary...

Their republican votes were completely inconsequential.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

That was almost a good impersonation of Trump. Keep at it, I know you can do it!

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Most of the dem voter base that you know. To paraphrase Nate Silver recently, the liberal very online voter thinks that their constituency is a lot larger than it is.

I guarantee you that the union steel worker in Bethlehem, PA and the school teacher mother of 4 in Georgia are and have been a sizable part of the base.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I guarantee you that the union steel worker in Bethlehem, PA and the school teacher mother of 4 in Georgia are and have been a sizable part of the base.

Not even. "your not as big as you think you are" goes both ways. United Steel is 1.2 million people. globally (US, Canada and Caribbean, apparently?) even assuming they're all US citizens... that's point-three of a percentage. And how many in the United Steelworks Union even work at the plant that's not a hotbutton issue solely because it's in PA?

the Nippon deal that politicians are trying to block... it's good for the US, it's good for the local economy. And the solution to the "oh but they might treat the union unfairly" isn't to fuck over the deal that's almost certainly going to cause those union jobs to dry up anyway... but rather to strengthen the unions. (what a thought, amiright?)

and oh yeah, by the way, of those 1.2 million, how much you wanna bet some of those union guys are... you know... progressive? or at least, progressive on some things (like strengthening unions. labor rights. Workplace safety protections.)

What I do know is the union reps I deal with are flaming progressives, and their member base is rather somewhat diverse. some are conservatives, some are progressive, most don't talk about it. (not steel. totally different industry, mind.)

ultimately, I suspect it comes down on the specific issues. Healthcare, police reform, immigration; are all things that the base is definitely more progressive than the politicians in Washington. maybe also israel/gaza and climate change

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Nate Silver

Lol

The guy who kept saying Hillary would win despite polling, fucked up covid and argued against medical experts, got laid off from his own company and called Biden a "walking corpse"?

The one literally bankrolled by the same guy bankrolling JD Vance?

https://www.vox.com/politics/372217/nate-silver-2024-polls-trump-harris

Why are you listening to him? Did you see that takedown article from today and walk away from it thinking he was the good guy?

I now coincidences are a thing, but that's a little spooky...

If not, you should read that, here's a good quote from it:

Accordingly, the uproar over the current forecast, from people who want Harris to win, has been quite pronounced. “Who bought #NateSilver and how much did he go for?” actress Bette Midler posted on X. Baseless conspiracy theories have been hatched that Silver’s recently announced gig as an adviser to the online prediction market Polymarket is spurring him to do the bidding of right-wing billionaires and skew his analysis against Harris. (Silver has strongly denied those claims. “Peter Thiel isn’t paying me any more than he’s paying someone who works for Facebook or Lyft,” he recently posted on X.)

Among the more data-literate, the main critique of Silver’s model lately has been that it’s unfairly punishing Harris for not getting a big polling bounce after the Democratic convention. (Nominees typically get a bounce then and lose some of that advantage later on, but this is an unusual cycle and perhaps Harris got her “bounce” earlier, when she entered the race.) On September 7, Silver wrote that if the “convention bounce” setting was turned off, the model would show something extremely close to a pure 50-50 contest; he has also said that this effect will dwindle the further we get from the convention.