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This is likely what’s going to happen with Taiwan and China eventually.
China will never rule Taiwan, they’re not gonna start a war with all their trading partners over an island. It’s a nationalist rallying cry, nothing more.
Unless Trump wins.
Then, it's open season for dictators all over the world.
China plans to conquer Taiwan from the inside via clandestine elected officials who will pass laws to lower the walls for China to politically "invade"
Unfortunately from the last elections (the pro Beijing KMT party sneakily taking majority), it's already working..before the citizens realize it, Taiwan will share the some authoritarian shithole regime appointed by the CCP and any talk that is not about the glory of China or unification will be a "separatist" 'national security threat"
Remember Hong Kong
Exactly. China doesn’t need to start a war to take Taiwan. Win an election one time, then aggressively change the rules to keep your party in power permanently.
They already have parliament majority. Now they just need to unseat Lai with their own zealot as president and Taiwan is fucked. Not a single army boot will step foot in either (not until they have control anyway)
What does this influence look like? Is it like the interference in elections elsewhere? Do they fund politicians like in the Philippines or Hungary or is it more like social media campaigns? What else should we be aware of?
Maybe.
You've got it reversed, the u.s. isn't going to war with a super power over a country most people can't point to on a map. It's even a question how far sanctions would go if they invaded, if you look at the Russian example the sanctions are pretty half ass and Russian petroleum is still flowing to the west, maybe less but they're still taking in money and there economy is doing way better then before the invasion. For all the talk westerners aren't willing to go cold in the winter or pay more at the pump for Ukraine.
That's for a country with a way smaller role in the global supply chain, fuck dying for Taiwan the real question is whether Americans could give up their cheap consumerist bullshit for Taiwan. China knows this too, it's just whether they want to act on it and make themselves a pariah state.
It's doubtful that their economy is doing better. GDP, in the middle of a failing (or costly) war, is a pretty bad metric. It doesn't matter if you produce more value inside the country if all of it (and more) is destroyed at the front.