this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 weeks ago

2/3 of humans dying is also unlikely.

So much of our modern economy is rooted in assumptions about where and how to mass produce food stocks. Climate change threatens all of that.

Obliterating breadbasket regions in Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Iran would devastate the regional populations.

Then you've got the wars in places like Ukraine, Lebanon and Sudan, further strangling access to fresh food stocks.

People joke about the looming "water wars", but consider how much Israel and the Saudis have invested in desalination and what dehydration is doing to the million plus Gaza residents who have lost access to reliable drinking water.

What happens during a substantial crop failure in the South Pacific? It isn't as though India and China haven't experienced massive famines in living memory.

You can argue the finer details, but it is easy to see a scenario in which a billion or more people are wiped out over the course of a generation, because of substantive shifts in access to basic living needs.