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Well the majority of people in Taiwan are not happy with the US’s military first approach and would in fact prefer diplomacy. You can’t just foreclose the possibility of diplomacy because of your preconceived expectations that the PRC is intransigent. You can’t just assume that will accept nothing less than the political subjugation of Taiwan. Doing that just makes war a more likely outcome and the people of Taiwan seem to understand that. The US is just pushing for a military forward strategy because it serves their interests and not the interests of the Taiwanese people.
The US is only there because Taiwan wants them there. If they have an election and elect a party who is against US involvement they can mostly just kick them out. But right now they are pro US.
Dude, they have their fucking chip factories rigged to self-destruct in case China invades. They don't trust China even a tiny bit, peaceful solution my ass.
It’s not black and white like that! Saying Taiwan is pro US is incredibly reductive. It’s true that the majority of Taiwanese people welcome US support. The majority of them also think that the military first way in which the US is supporting them is going to push Taiwan towards war, something they do not want. A majority also voted for parties that prefer to find diplomatic solutions to the tensions with the PRC.
Also, Taiwan doesn’t have to trust the PRC to for a diplomatic solution to be possible. Rarely is diplomacy solely based on trust. I genuinely believe they could find some sort of compromise that is amenable to all parties. However both Taiwan’s current president, elected with only a plurality of the vote, and the US are not working to find a permanent diplomatic solution and are therefore escalating tensions against the will and interests of the Taiwanese populace. This isn’t good for anyone except the US which wants to use Taiwan as a pawn to contain its adversary, the PRC.
There is no diplomatic solution except one: China recognizes Taiwan as an independent country.
That's it, done, this is the only solution to this whole fuckery. If that happens the US could just bugger off (well, if we hope China keeps its word and doesn't suddenly attack afterwards). What other damn solution is there?
That’s not how diplomacy works. You can’t just declare the outcome you want and expect the PRC to abide by it when they have no incentive to. The PRC also likely believes that if they ever recognized Taiwan as independent the US would immediately look to set up military bases on Kinmen and other islands Taiwan controls. They rightly see that as massive threat to their ability to trade if the US ever decided to try and enforce a blockade.
Don’t doubt that the US has always wanted to exert military pressure on the PRC. It’s why the US supported Chiang Kai-shek’s militarily and then protected his retreat to Taiwan with the US navy. It’s why they continued to support the KMT and the ROC as the legitimate government of China even as they were massacring the indigenous people’s of Taiwan. The Korean War was also viewed by the PRC as an extension of US aggression against its regional security. They weren’t really wrong either. Douglas MacArthur famously wanted to go so far as to nuke the PRC into submission during the Korean War. US-PRC relations only really got better after the Soviet-Sino split when the US saw they could use the PRC as an instrument against the USSR. However, even today the US aims to maintain military supremacy in the region and so it continues its military first approach towards the situation with Taiwan. The ROC’s transition to a liberal democracy means nothing to them.
The PRC looks at that all and it just confirms their fears about the US. If you wanted an actually diplomatic solution it would almost certainly require that the US military is excluded from Taiwanese land. With that, I’d be willing to bet the PRC would agree to a solution which maintains the pretext of “one China” under the guise of an economic union even as Taiwan maintains full political autonomy. The reality is though that neither the US nor the current Taiwanese government have given any indication that’s a negotiation they’re willing to have. As such, tensions rise and the people of Taiwan are left to wonder if war is coming without having any serious ability to stop it.
How well the diplomatic solution of "One China, while keeping their autonomy" works could be seen with Hong Kong. Lol.
Free Hong Kong, fuck the CCP.
Taiwan should be an independent country, full stop.
Hong Kong doesn’t have full political autonomy. It never did, not under the British nor under the PRC. How’s that at all relevant to what I said?
Hong Kong even has their own government (which was undermined by the CCP), of course it's relevant.
Taiwan would first become a puppet of China, then forcefully gets fully integrated. There won't be any independence, especially not economic independence as China wants the chip factories.
Im seriously trying to work with you here. It’s very clear when I said “full autonomy” I did not mean only a “high degree of autonomy” as was the case with Hong Kong. Please listen to what I said and don’t get side tracked by imagining how a made up solution that you invented is doomed.
Oh, I fully understand you, I just hate the idea.
Yes, they could work out a pretense of "One China" while staying separate and just adding a trade deal on top. Just as Ukraine agreed to be independent, give up their nuclear weapons and live in peace with Russia, having guarantees they wouldn't be attacked.
Sorry, but the only thing I'd accept is China declaring Taiwan as its own independent country. They can add a trade deal on top or whatever else they want to sweeten the deal, but that's what it takes. As long as China keeps up the idea that Taiwan belongs to them this is never going to work out.