this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2024
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What worries me is that fighting an insurgency has and is always going to be hard. They know the terrain, the people, and can be unpredictable.
Sure, the military does tons of training for all sorts of different situations and terrain. But I think as we see with Ukraine, a lot of can be done with relatively low tech munitions. And let's not forget the military surplus and retired equipment in the hands of local PDs which aren't going to align with the military.
I think the military has tons of tech and equipment. But that's not a guarantee they will stomp y'all queda. I think they'll be conservative with their weapons and gear. They aren't going to carpet bomb farms.
There are certainly plenty of people who will keep up the fight… but you’ve also got to remember how hard it will be for y’all queda (you’re god damned right in stealing this…) to keep up the fight for long.
Ukraine has a centralized structure who is processing intelligence and informing battlefield commanders… and they’re fighting an occupying force. There’s no occupying force here. There’s a bunch of pissed off rednecks and douchebags and small pockets get organized (Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, etc), but when these groups meet actual military opposition, they’ll fold like chairs and give up the paramilitary cosplay…
The trouble is that 10% of those cosplayers will turn out to be effective enough to be trouble
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