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I give 50/50 odds that Harris can do about as well as Biden, the more I think about it.
But there's very few Democrats who can reasonably replace Biden today. And most of those do not have access to Biden's fundraising (Harris does have access to that and gives her a huge leg up).
I still think that Biden staying on to serve as a political shield for Harris... and then resigning in January is the best path forward for Democrats. Harris still has to deal with womanizers and racists. All the adults recognize that she's the real President Candidate moving forward already, so its not like she needs to actually step into the political firezone.
I'm leaning to 50/50 now because Harris feasibly could benefit from some kind of VP pick herself to shore up support. Or she could go down in flames as the racists / anti-women vote turns out against her. Hard for me to say, but its a feasible path IMO, if people really want to replace Biden to replace him with Harris.
EDIT: However, the idea that Biden should resign for some no-name / non-existant Democrat who hasn't stepped up despite 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022, now 2024 elections is fucking nuts. Your mysterious secret savior doesn't exist, and they'd never step up 3 months before the election to ruin their chances at 2028 anyway.
Those odds are terrible.
"Hey, take this gun. Point the gun in between your eyes, then pull the trigger. If the gun doesn't fire, I'll give you a million dollars. The gun has 50/50 odds that it will fail. Wanna play?"
Yeah, which is why I prefer if Biden stays running. I honestly think he's our best shot at defeating Trump. Even today.
Do you think anyone else has a chance this late in the game? Has support begun to coalesce at any replacements yet? Its been a few weeks since the first debate. Who is stepping up?
Harris is stepping up. I can say that, and there's some favorable polls right now for her. And I think the Democrats can spin the story of "You're worried about age, so we listened and gave our best / most reasonable response to the worries of the public". I'm not sure if it'd work mind you, but its better than nothing and I judge it to be about the same as Biden finishing this campaign (then resigning after the election), which is the default choice.
Harris could surprise me with a very good VP pick. Harris can inherit the entirety of Biden's campaign as well. The unions likely aren't going to be as happy with Harris as Biden but it'd be too late for them to withdraw their support. Etc. etc.
At this point in the race, Biden staying is the best chance the dems have to beat Trump.
After Biden takes the presidency, he can step down if he wants. But not before.