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Oh, he is definitely getting reelected. That is an absolute certainty at this point.
It will galvanize his base, who were already voting for him, to be sure. But I doubt this will swing many voters. Trump is still Trump, regardless of assassination attempt.
Then you are incredibly historically naive. He was already winning by every available metric. So, if nothing had changed at all there was already an extremely high likelihood of him being reelected. This only serves to further strengthen his chances.
I don't think people really understand how stupid, brainwashed, and weak minded the average American truly is. There are plenty of people who will vote for him because surviving an assassination attempt makes him look strong. Count on it.
I just looked for myself, and NPR/PBS survey has Biden ahead. Many other polls have it basically tied. A few have Trump in the lead by 2-3 points.
I wouldn't personally call that winning by every available metric, although I would agree with you that it looks like Trump has a slight lead.
Were those national popular vote polls? If so, you have to factor in the electoral advantage Republicans have. If the national popular vote is tied, Republicans will win.
Individual polls are meaningless. I only care about the trends of the the aggregate polling. Five Thirty Eight has had Trump leading by an average of 2 points in aggregate polling basically from the beginning. There has never been a time where Biden was ahead during this election cycle. Therefore, using the available metrics it is clear that Donald Trump is on the path to returning to the White House.
You sure about that?
You linked to the 2016 election. Here are the adjusted values for 2024.
I did link 2016, showing that Clinton had a bigger lead than the rapist with 34 felonies has now. How'd that turn out again?