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That seems like exactly what that guy would do. The only problem with that is you have to actually be an attractive candidate to be a spoiler. If he runs, he's not really taking any votes from Biden because nobody who votes Biden is going to consider a party-line traitor like Manchin. If anything he'll be spoiling the republican candidates who are looking for a less batshit alternative. But then again, that's not how primaries work.
He's probably doing it to collect a paycheck from the people paying him to be a spoiler.
You don't get to a position like Manchin's without having a massive ego. He already enjoys being a spoiler in the senate. It's his thing now. He's the Democrats' Rand Paul. So extending that to a presidential race makes sense from his perspective.
I'm not so sure. Centrists have been defending Manchin ever since he killed BBB for them. I also recall 2008, when centrist Clinton supporters formed a PAC to oppose Obama and support McCain after he won the nomination.
Meanwhile, Biden has been trying to get student loan forgiveness, something centrists oppose and progressives support, and worst of all made it clear with his second forgiveness plan that he wasn't going to just announce that he tried and never try again.
I'm sure there are some centrists who would crawl over broken glass for a chance to drink the bilge water from Manchin's houseboat. 2008 showed that centrists will not only jump ship, they'll organize. Progressives have never formed a PAC to support a Republican like centrists did.