jwiggler

I think it's likely Harris would be the nominee if Biden stepped aside, unless they are spooked by her polls, as well. But that is a lot of ifs, and really doesn't bear much weight on the likelihood as I see it (and hate it) of Biden staying in the race and losing to Trump.

But yeah, that's why it mostly hinges on Biden, because the DNC has rules in place to protect the presumptive nominee from a delegate mutiny.

It does matter if Biden decides to stay in. It makes it far less likely the DNC is able to replace him, because the delegates are already pledged to him, and as far as I understand, in order to replace him they'd need a clear alternative singular candidate to nominate. Plus, they'd need to stop Biden from reviewing and selecting a loyal slate of delegates from each state who will certainly vote for him. It'd be much much more likely if Biden steps down and himself calls for a 5 or 6 week primary. My source, if you want to check it out. There's a chance I'm misinterpreting but I think that's the jist of it.

As for those people rigorously defending Biden, I don't necessarily think they're automatically pro-Israel. They're scared, for sure, as we all are. And they've probably bought some of, if not all, the Democratic posturing that Biden is just fine, and other writers' sentiments that doing something like changing the nominee last-minute will be a disaster because it is unprecedented, and so they double down. Like a superfan in sports who is in complete denial that their team has a glaring weakness and probably won't make it out of the playoffs. You see it all the time. I won't ever hold it against those people, because it's easy to be in that state, especially if you love your team. Plus, if you logic it out with them, sometimes they come around and end up seeing the roster change was actually needed. I don't think deriding them gives them a chance to see your side.

There are actual congress-people talking about a mini primary for Democrats, and that by having something like that right now is going to dominate national news for the party, which right before an election is really good thing. Democrats could even spin it as "We're listening to you-- you want a younger candidate? We're gonna give you one," rather than "We are in complete disarray regarding this upcoming election." Regardless, whichever nominee makes it out of those is going to have plenty of name recognition by the end of it.

This is not a ridiculous or far-fetched notion, it is being spit-balled right now by congresspeople. Everything hinges on Biden, so we'll just have to see how his polls look like next week, if any other major voices join in the calls for him to step aside, and how the crises meetings in Congress go.

But Im not sure how people downvoting you are so confident in Biden or why they're so baffled about this whole thing. Like, "Who's could possibly be the nominee of it's not Biden?" Oh I dunno, one of the 15 names national news outlets have been proposing for the last week?

Nah, you haven't, I appreciate that

I definitely agree with all that. I think its highly highly unlikely Biden steps aside. I guess I was trying to get at why OP thinks it's so silly that a person would think that another candidate has a better shot of beating Trump.

You're technically right there, but I think you know what I mean: the OPs position is that if any other candidate replaced Biden, they will not have a chance of beating Trump.

Oops, I didn't see that they had a weighted average there, I literally just counted the spread and divided. Well that's better than I thought, but I'm still just not feeling good about November.

You can laugh me off, but I think even the fact that there are mainstream publications coming out with articles about the logistics of replacing Biden shows it's, while not probably in any sense, still a thing on many people's minds. I still empathize with those people and don't think they're laughable. But thank you for correcting me.

I mean, regardless of whether you personally believe Biden is doing well as President, that doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the general population's disposition toward him. And also, I just averaged the spread of each general election poll listed on that site, all of which have Trump leading.The number came out to 4.63%. That's kinda a far cry from 1.5% that you mentioned.

Let me be clear. I do not want Trump to win. Please do not put that in my mouth. Thinking he will win and actively hoping and voting for him are not the same. I do not want to be right in my feeling that he will win.

Why try something that's never been done before? Well, I think Trump broke politics already. We are already in unprecedented territory regarding presidential power, this particular election being between two previous Presidents, etc, so I personally don't think the "established norm" argument holds too much water. And then you have my other arguments: The polls aren't looking good, and we just came off a terrible debate performance.

This isn't all to say another candidate would definitely beat Trump, or that I even think it's a good idea to get someone else in there. But I don't think it's a silly or idiotic to want that, as it seems you're making it out. I can empathize with people who feel that way, because I am also frustrated with having to choose Biden.

I was just wondering why you think its so silly, and I guess the answer is, "because it's never been done before." Thanks for responding.

Would you mind elaborating on this? Polls don't favor Biden right now and obviously his debate performance was really REALLY bad. I mean, if he's the nominee, you gotta vote for him, but I'm curious why you think it's so crazy that a person would feel like another Democratic nominee has a better shot. Especially considering how dissatisfied almost everyone in the country is regarding the two choices we have before us, and how often the explanation of that dissatisfaction ends up being because of age.

I think it's a pretty reasonable take to want someone other than Biden to run, considering those things I mentioned. Even if you personally think another candidate besides Biden kills the chances of us beating Trump, why do you think it's so absurd of a position to want someone to take Bidens place?

It seems right now your position, that Biden is the only chance we have against Trump, is the one that is kinda illogical, but I'm curious what your take on that is because there's a chance I'm not accounting for something big, like the logistics of getting a replacement candidate in there and publicized.

No game has ever affected me as much as Outer Wilds. Out of every life changing piece of art I've ever experienced, whether it be film, television, music, literature, or videogames, this is the first and only time I've ever gotten chills by the end.

The story isn't super deep and it isn't necessarily profound -- it's not really a belief-changer, outside of, perhaps, your idea of what a videogame is -- but the experience itself is beautiful and rewarding and I'm not sure it can be recaptured.

I got an OLED the other day and splurged hard during the summer sale.

I got Stray and Little Kitty, Big City to show off to my cat-loving GF, and for me I got Dave the Diver, Sifu, and Babu is You. Also picked up Hollow Knight for good measure, but have yet to start it. 9 Sols, Mullet Madjack, Warhammer Boltgun, Baldurs Gate 3, and Return of the Obra Dinn all on my wishlist.

I pointed out the two things a knew about Jill Stein and asked for elaboration, and you're making it out as if I knew several things about her and am just trying to incite a thrashing response.

I'm just trying to engage in regular conversation, there's no need for you to try to make me feel stupid -- I'm already coming from a place of ignorance. But hey, if it makes you feel better about yourself and your knowledgeable position, patronize away.