Yeah you may be right, I even hope you're right. But I don't think Putin cares about saving face in the west.
I would guess his biggest challenge would be keeping the Belorussian people in line. I know little about the country, I should probably read up!
Good point, but Putin plays the long game, I suspect this is strategic manoeuvring for 12-18 months from now.
Ha, I'd rather take odds on Lukashenko "falling from a window" - I seem to remember he was reported as "seriously ill" a few weeks ago, plus if I remember Putin was pressuring him to attack Ukraine, and he refused.
Get rid of L. and Putin can install Prigo. and they will work together on Ukraine. Scary.
To comment on my own link, I still think (per comments elsewhere), that right from the get-go this is a 3-way play orchestrated by Putin to get a strong fight-ready leader on his western flank, and north of Ukraine.
I do not think it has much at all to do with a coup or exile.
I posted this comment in another thread (hope it's OK to link). TL;DR Putin has a track record of using bizarre public "emergencies"* to progress what he wants, maybe this is another one.
*e.g. Moscow theatre gassing, Beslan school massacre
the two of them would have been a powerhouse
So true!
I kept a copy ofJack's final speech ('Choose hope not fear...'), such an open, honest, statement. Still makes me tear up.
I really hope she does well.
I do wonder (given the weird and largely bloodless development of the 'march for justice'and it's current state with Prighozin and some Wagner said to be going to Belorussia) whether that is all a play for public consumption. It wouldn't be the first time Putin has staged dramatic and public events to achieve his ends.
A worrying evolution consistent with the rumours would be Prighozin as Lukashenko's head of "Security", but aligned with Putin, plus a reconstituted Wagner threatening Ukraine's northern border.
That sounds like a huge win for Putin compared to the current situation.
Maybe that's crazy, I hope so.
The NDP are putting pressure on the Liberals to give this some teeth (same link as in CBC article), and because of the Supply & Services Agt. which I think specifically mentions this, have some leverage as well.
Worth encouraging Laurel Collins (NDP critic) to keep at it.
Have to confess I found the Facebook threat to stop showing news in users' feeds amusing; I did not think Facebook included real news to start with.
That's exactly right. I imagine Putin & his lackeys are very busy indeed right now. Just I would definitely not count him out like many articles seem to be.
Edit: spelling