France, Greece, Spain, are pretty large economies in the EU, and are all growing. Spain and Greece fairly quickly growing. They have all really strengthen Chinese economic ties kinda hitching themselves to China.
All to say, I think the EU is more likely to lean China than US, and if there is disagreement it will put great strain on the EU as a whole.
Transport and pipeline Maintenance is the reason natural gas often ends up being worse for the environment than coal and oil. Sure methane burns much cleaners but if every container transporting methane leaks billions of cubic meters leak every year it kinda loses its edge.
It becomes very hard to tariff intangible services like those provided by tech, or financial securities.
If the datacenter is in the EU and that EU data center is servicing EU does it get tariffed? I think they should just do shit like requiring certain infrastructure and job investments in the EU or pay higher tax rates on revenue.
Current US tax policy, GILTI and FDII already kinda incentivize offshoring for multinational companies based in the US. Companies that deal largely in intangible good are already outsourcing jobs. EU forcing them to speed up this process puts both Trump and the multinational companies in a double bind.
Neither can really make a move in their best interest without pissing the other off.
We look at old and existing authoritarian and fascist governments and ask; How did people get so brainwashed that they turn in their friends, and family. Well this is how it starts.