Renneder

AI: At the heart of superforecasting is a simple but transformative idea: the best forecasters treat their beliefs not as sacred truths, but as hypotheses to be tested. In forecasting, where accuracy and adaptability are of paramount importance, superforecasting has demonstrated superior performance. Superforecasting was a watershed moment in a $20 million research tournament led by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to determine whether crowdsourced forecasting methods could provide more accurate forecasts than existing approaches. In forecasting, where accuracy and adaptability are of paramount importance, superforecasting has demonstrated superior results. At the heart of superforecasting is a simple but transformative idea: the best forecasters treat their beliefs not as sacred truths, but as hypotheses to be tested. In forecasting, where accuracy and adaptability are of paramount importance, superforecasting has demonstrated superior performance.

AI: In this episode, Razib discusses the state of artificial intelligence with the introduction of large language models such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini with Nick Cassivatis, a former artificial intelligence researcher and current entrepreneur. Cassivatis notes that this is not the first time there has been a stir around artificial intelligence, and expects it to die down in the near future. He also suggests that large language models could quickly reach their limits, and that next year could be far less revolutionary than many expected. While artificial intelligence is having an impact on various fields, including software development, Cassivatis doesn't expect it to revolutionize all of life.

AI: In light of distrust of progress and environmental concerns, the authors call for a revolution in thinking and a positive vision of the future. They argue that science fiction should offer inspiring stories that can inspire the creation of a better world. Instead of constant warnings and descriptions of dark prospects, it is necessary to expand the boundaries of the imagination and imagine alternative scenarios based on cooperation, innovation and progress.

AI: Over the past few decades, social interactions have declined significantly in the United States, leading to increased loneliness and anxiety among young people. This can be explained by the increase in the use of electronic devices and the decrease in traditional social activities. An increase in loneliness among young people has also been correlated with an increase in teenage depression and suicidal ideation. Researchers say good relationships are the key to happiness and health, and we should be willing to take care of our relationships as much as we take care of our health.

AI: Scientists study human history to understand why people fight with each other. They found that over millions of years, hominids developed technologies to survive and compete with other primate species. However, it was only with the advent of Homo sapiens that large-scale wars became commonplace. Scientists believe that the technologies and social systems developed during human evolution can be used to establish peace and equality among peoples, rather than to create weapons of destruction.

AI: A new analysis of data from the James Webb Space Telescope explored the possibility that black holes existed at the dawn of time and helped form galaxies. The findings challenge theories that black holes formed after the first stars and galaxies appeared, and indicate that they may have accelerated the birth of new stars during the first 50 million years of the Universe's existence. In particular, scientists discovered more young galaxies and supermassive black holes than expected, and concluded that black holes may have been the building blocks or seeds for early galaxies. In a paper published in Astrophysical Journal Letters, scientists suggest that black holes could speed up the star formation process by expelling crushed gas clouds and turning them into stars. They further predict that the young Universe had two phases: in the first phase, high-speed outflows from black holes accelerated the star formation process, and in the second phase, the outflows slowed down. Scientists expect that future Webb observations of more precise counts of stars and supermassive black holes in the early Universe will help confirm their calculations and reveal more information about the process of galaxy formation.

• The development of artificial intelligence may lead to a technological singularity when it begins to go beyond human control.

• ChatGPT is a tool designed to understand and generate human-like text based on data fed into it.

• Dominguez is concerned about the risks that AI chatbots may pose to higher-order executive functions.

• Artificial intelligence can act as a “cognitive prosthesis,” performing cognitive tasks on behalf of humans.

• Gamification involves adding game elements to non-game activities to improve decision making.

• The article warns of potential risks associated with the close integration of artificial intelligence into cognitive processes.

• Cognitive offloading can be a useful mechanism, but with technologies such as ChatGPT there is a risk of slowing cognitive development and problem-solving abilities.

In a study conducted by researchers at New York University Abu Dhabi, a fictitious Google Scholar profile of scientists was created to demonstrate the ability to buy and manipulate citations. The study found that some scientists use similar methods to improve their citation rankings. The study authors proposed a new metric called the citation concentration index, or c. 2 -index, to identify potentially problematic citation patterns.

Political science is not considered a fully scientific discipline, as demonstrated through sparse and opinionated textbooks and a lack of definition in the field. The discourse of political science is shifted to the humanitarian flank, which indicates the immaturity of this field. The formal legal approach, central to political science, is based on the study of political institutions, including constitutional law, constitutional history, and the study of institutions. However, this approach has been criticized for ignoring underlying assumptions. Political science can be seen as a field ripe for a shakeup, a paradigm shift, or a scientific revolution, and startup secrets can be applied to it. With these secrets, one can create a mathematical model of democracy based on biology, wealth and economics, and test this model using probability theory. it is possible that this theory can explain 64% of the variance in democracy. However, policymakers still lack accurate measurement of racial characteristics, leaving this aspect of the study open to further study.

In late December 2023, Beth Mazur passed away, and several fake artificial intelligence-generated obituaries about her and Brian Vastag appeared in Google search results. These fake obituaries caused confusion and concern among their friends and colleagues, as well as their community. The websites that published these fake obituaries had strange names and contained a constant stream of articles on various topics, including deaths of people around the world. Some of these sites contained inaccurate information, such as the date or location of the memorial service. Aggregation sites regularly outrank real funeral homes that work with grieving families. The fake obituary writers appear to have used artificial intelligence to create obituaries for different people who died from different causes. Mazur and Vastag also experimented with generative artificial intelligence tools in their final months.

Paleontologists have discovered a rich and diverse locality of Lower Ordovician fossils in Montagne-Noire, France.

The site contains more than 400 fossils, including rare soft tissues such as the digestive system and cuticle.

The Cabrières Biota study was carried out by scientists from UNIL, CNRS and international groups, and the results were published in Nature Ecology & Evolution.

The Ordovician biota includes arthropods, cnidarians, algae and sponges, suggesting that the area was a refuge for species escaping high temperatures.

Intense global warming is causing animals to migrate to high latitude refuges to escape extreme equatorial temperatures.

Discoverers Eric Monser and Sylvie Monser-Goujon are filled with enthusiasm after the discovery.

A long-term research program has been launched, the purpose of which is to reveal the internal and external anatomy of organisms, as well as to establish their phylogenetic relationships and lifestyle.

Declassified documents showed that US intelligence had extensive knowledge of Russian plans regarding Ukraine.

Western intelligence services continue to cooperate with Ukraine, providing it with real-time intelligence information.

Although open source intelligence (OSINT) is becoming increasingly popular, it cannot replace traditional intelligence methods such as satellites, espionage, and formal intelligence capabilities.

OSINT is useful for British intelligence as cover, but even so it only accounts for about 20% of the total information.

British intelligence is using open sources to confirm aspects of the conflict that may cause confusion.

Although OSINT can provide valuable information, classified intelligence is still needed to compensate for gaps, uncertainties, and distortions in public information.

Government agencies have the financial resources and powers necessary to collect classified information to the extent required in individual cases.

Assessment is a key element of intelligence that is often missing from the broader OSINT community.

Covert intelligence is closely linked to broader government information flows and remains at least as important as OSINT, although its influence is less visible.