After XP, though, the work in the core OS was basically done
There were a lot of big things happening in computer hardware: migration to 64-bit instruction sets and memory addressing, multicore processors, the rise of the GPU. The security paradigm also shifted to less trust between programs, with a lot of implementation details on encryption and permissions.
So I'd argue that Windows has some pretty different things going on under the hood from what it was 20 years ago.
Doesn't this formula assume that electricity costs the same everywhere at that particular moment? The wholesale price of electricity can vary significantly across different parts of national grids, and certainly can vary significantly between countries, especially countries whose electricity prices are denominated in different currencies.
And then the actual end user price of the electricity can be hedged with futures and other options/contracts/securities, to where two people using power from the same grid are paying very different prices. And once you introduce financial instruments, the bottom line cost might depend on stuff like interest rates or other financial/economic conditions local to that place.