this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2023
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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Leo from Kitguru made an interesting point on moore's law show this week, that this perpetual state of "might be forced to cancel" and "products might be banned" actually probably serves to funnel inventory to china even faster. like now it's a race against time to get the inventory there before whatever sanction this week, and you better get as much other stuff over there before it gets banned too.

The sanctions are generally ineffective, china already pushed up to 7nm DUV far quicker than anyone expected, and if they develop indigenous EUV then the silicon shield is over. I know everyone thinks that's impossible for anyone to catch up to ASML/etc, but china doesn't have to respect western IP either, it's impossible to catch up to ASML under the IP regimes set up by western governments but it's significantly easier for them. "Can it be done" is a question of willpower and spending and time, yes it will be extraordinarily difficult (replicate the quality of zeiss optics, ASML EUV sources, etc) but they'll get there eventually, and probably far faster than anyone on the outside assumes, just like with 7nm tier nodes. It's a lot easier to build the second fusion reactor when you know how the first one works, that whole "fast follower" thing.

And when that happens you will have a country completely unencumbered by any of the patent-system deadweight loss, or the other problems of late-stage capitalism. It is like Iran: not only did the sanctions not change anything, but now you have a country that has been forced to develop indigenous industry and technology, and they're still just as bad as ever but now they're bad and also have a stream of technology that you don't control.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

https://arstechnica.com/?p=1978300

They’re making new bans to halt any speeding to get stuff out before the regular bans take effect

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Someone please explain to me why the US is capable of demanding a non-US company not sell a product to an a completely different independent 3rd nation.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

ASML is a Dutch company, but the US is blocking them from exporting to China just the same.

They don’t have to follow the US order, but a minor consequence would be that they can’t sell to US companies anymore…

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Actually, it's more complex than that. Since the United States government, and domestic companies was essential in the development of technology related to the laser-produced plasma (LPP) light source for EUV.

The development of extreme-ultraviolet lithography (EUV) heavily involved complex, collaborative effort funded by United States government, Notably, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, including Livermore, Berkeley, and Sandia, have played a significant role in supporting EUV technology. These efforts spanned several decades, driven by public-private partnerships under Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADA) that manifested as a consortium of private companies and the Labs such as the ultraviolet Limited Liability Company (EUV LLC), and United States Advanced Lithography (USAL), Additionally, it also received substantial resources from prior laser programs such as the infamous Strategic Defence Initiative ("Star Wars").

https://www.semiconductoronline.com/doc/euv-llc-enters-development-agreement-with-new-0001

ASML played a direct and integral role in these various initiatives related to extreme-ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Additionally, the company made numerous acquisitions, including the purchase of two prominent United States-based companies: Silicon Valley Group (SVG) and Cymer in 2013. These acquisitions were particularly significant as they incorporated cutting-edge technology developed through these collaborative programs in the EUV field.

https://www.laserfocusworld.com/detectors-imaging/article/16565459/asml-to-buy-extremeuv-lightsource-maker-cymer

https://www.eetimes.com/darpa-ends-litho-aid-at-critical-juncture-for-maskless/

ASML could theoretically sell to China, they would however be blocked from using the laser-produced-plasma (LPP) Extreme ultraviolet light source from ASML USA based subsidiary that are associated with Cymer. They would be unable to sell to the United States market.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

US is capable of demanding a non-US company not sell a product

You'd think that the question should be how they are able to even dictate a US company to do that. Since all you ever hear on reddit is how US is just capitalism-uber-alles and damn corpos dictate the US state policy.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

there is no might, they have to, its the law.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Worldwide acceptance of US foreign policy just keeps getting lower, it's ultimately unsustainable.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

It's unsustainable for US to not sell its chips to China because US foreign policy is not popular? That's a very strange logic you got there buddy.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

That's a drop in the ocean as far as Nvidia is concerned. That's a company that moves nearly half a trillion dollars in products every year. 5 billion is chump change

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Its a quarter of their revenues

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I wonder if the natsec boomers who think AI is an existential threat to America also used to believe we'd have flying cars by now.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

will i get cheaper gpus after this

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Funnel temporarily. They will still get hit hard in the long term. And future hardware will obviously be better.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Do we get cheaper gamung gpus now?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Nvidia had to know this was sus to begin with; they just thought they'd get away with it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

The U.S attempts of sanctioning China’s semiconductor sector industry has failed miserably.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Funny seeing these ccp bots cry about how it won't affect China at all.

If it won't affect them you wouldn't cry about it or care. Let it be then if it helps china. If it helps china why does it make you angry

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Extremely stupid sanctions. US companies were profiting like mad from China, cutting off our imports will only bolster their industry/investments. Soon China will be making their own products to complete and it'll be at a fraction of the cost like all their other tech products.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Ahh yes can't wait for the AliExpress CTX4090 ULTRA XXXTREME GAMING that performs like a 2060.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

And how is that a bad thing?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I never said it was bad. Can't wait for gamerjesus to review it and do a teardown.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Competition with cheap products is a good thing. If this is true good we need to stop selling anything to China we need more competition

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Not just profitting like mad, China is the biggest semiconductor market in the world, they handed us 320 billion per year to buy semiconductors.

Reddit and U.S. politicians basically have about the same level of intelligence. "just cut them off fuck em loool".