this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2023
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[–] [email protected] 6 points 10 months ago

I claim pointless!

As long as they ll keep printing non existent money, inflation will keep going, and rouble will keep falling.

But now, without any credit for economic activity

[–] [email protected] 6 points 10 months ago

Very interesting IMO. A 2% increase from 13 to 15% is a big deal for the economy, and it shows the Russian Ruble and economy is pressed. Especially since the bank also states that this will NOT return inflation to its 4% target.
For comparison the EU central bank decided to NOT increase the interest rate at this time, because inflation is decreasing, keeping the EU leading interest rate at 4%.

Back in spring we first heard how Russian budgets were blowing up, and according to what we have heard through the year, Russia would probably burn through the war chest before the end of the year. A war chest Putin has spend more than a decade building.

So what we see here, may be the signs confirming, that soon the economy will begin to really hurt from this war and the sanctions.
Unfortunately Russia has had some very skilled people regulating their economy extremely well. But they can only do so much.

This is important IMO, because the Russian ability to wage war will decline together with a declining economy.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:


MOSCOW, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The Bank of Russia hiked interest rates by a higher than expected 200 basis points to 15% on Friday, raising borrowing costs for the fourth meeting running in response to a weak rouble, stubborn inflation and increasing budget spending.

The central bank has raised rates by 750 basis points since July, including an unscheduled emergency hike in August as the rouble tumbled past 100 to the dollar and the Kremlin called for tighter monetary policy.

"Current inflationary pressures have significantly increased to a level above the Bank of Russia's expectations," it said in a statement, pointing to domestic demand outpacing the provision of goods and services, and high lending growth.

"It looks like today's interest rate hike front-loaded the tightening cycle in response to the fiscal announcements earlier this month," said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

The central bank's tightening cycle began this summer when inflationary pressure from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and the budget deficit was compounded by the falling rouble.

Sinara Investment Bank analyst Sergei Konygin said the lack of forward hawkish guidance meant it was highly likely the key rate had already reached its upper boundary.


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