Putin was a dictator that ruled through a strongman public persona. However, the leader of the mercenary group, demanding a change of the military's top leadership and calling the premise of the entire war false, takes control of the main Russian city from which the offense on Ukraine is supported, is shown on video having the support of the city in public, and literally threatens to take Moscow with only ~5k troops. Russia's military forces against Ukraine have been effectively cut off from logistical support. This happened in ~2 days. Meanwhile, while Putin flees in a plane, called the mercenary leader a traitor and said that he would be prosecuted for treason. The mercenary leader then backs away in the final moment, and flees to another country that brokered the negotiations. Putin drops charges and now the military is changing leadership.

They just showed how politically weak and scared Putin really is, not even having control of his own immediate subordinates. They outed that the reason for the war was a lie. They just lost the leader of the mercenary group. They just lost the city from which they support their offensive on Ukraine. They just showed how vulnerable Moscow is, and by a ridiculously small unit of 5k troops. They almost had a civil war.

My best guess is that a coup was successful, and Putin is no longer in charge. We just don't know who really is in charge. They are keeping him there for a soft transfer of power, but a coup happened. The new Minister of Defense will terminate the offense on Ukraine, and the powers that control Russia will place a new face as president.

Anyone else have a better guess?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Putin is still in charge. That’s not going to change. The mercenary leader got what he wanted by sacking the Minister of Defense and busting open the false justification for the war. He never mentioned Putin as a bad guy in all of this. He only said the Ministry of Defense tricked Putin into the war and then didn’t fund it. Putin was weakened but is still in charge.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Putin was weakened but is still in charge.

I think this is very accurate. He was absolutely weakened by this "rebellion," but he is still the top guy. It will be interesting to see how this affects the war going forward.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The only reason he's still in charge is that, weak as he may be, everyone else is weaker. Putin has spent the last two decades trying to ensure that nobody is stronger than he is, not so much by building himself up but rather by tearing everyone else down.

That's been working for him in the short term, but I think this may be building up a really big problem for Russia in the longer term. When Putin finally does fall - as he surely will - there will be no succession plan and there will be nobody strong enough to step into his role.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

Totally agree. Russia's screwed in the long run regardless, he made sure of that. I'm a Russian immigrant, have been living in the US since 2001. I haven't seen much future for my country since the 2012 election (it's the last one I bothered to vote in, it became clear they were a total farce, and Vlady boy was making himself tsar). And then they attacked Ukraine. I lost all hope. I'm not wasting any time trying to make Russia better. I'd rather invest time and money into helping people hurt by them.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

By placing the blame for the war on the military leadership, could this give Putin an out to stop the war and absolve himself of all blame?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Could he possibly believe that, though?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I'm not sure Russia gets to terminate the war at this point. Even stopping offensive actions wouldn't meet Ukraine's requirements. Russia needs to be expelled from all of Ukraine, including Crimea.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

They could terminate the war (by leaving) but not just the offence.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

That would be awesome, but I suspect Putin would sacrifice the lives of his entire population before giving up Crimea.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Why? Between the two Russia is the bigger part.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

For Putin? Two Reason: 1. He would look super weak and unsuccessful if he lost Crimea. 2. It's in Russias mind very very important to keep Crimea and additionally a land Bridge to Crimea to "control the black sea" with their navy...

Both are Bs.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

I was more pointing out it's an exaggeration to say he'd sacrifice the whole rest of Russia.

At this point Ukraine is not his biggest problem, though. He has internal challengers.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I'd think you'd struggle to get even his immediate, hopefully liberal, successors to give it up. There are even more liberal Russians that support Crimea's annexation on account of it historically and ethnically being seen as Russian, obviously the ethnic cleansing practiced during Stalin's time helped ensure this. The Crimeans themselves are hard to say because nearly any poll that has actually been conducted on them has been biased one way or the other. I'd still guesstimate that a good majority of them will possibly want to stay with Russia since war support seems decently high there. I don't think there is an easy path for Crimea to come back to Ukraine even if the Russians agree to relinquish it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Yes, when Ukraine takes it (which is I think where we're headed) they're going to have a hell of a time integrating it. It was added to Ukraine after Stalin died, when people say it's not historically a part of it they have a point.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

"projects in Africa" read: piggy's been given crown license to colonize Africa for himself

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago

It gets and keeps him away from Russia, so there won't be a repeat coup, so Putin feels safe. It puts Pregoznin in Africa, surrounded by his people, and maybe getting him far enough away from Putin that he doesn't fall out of windows anytime soon. His men stop getting slaughtered for Putin's ego, so they 'win' as well. And with Wagner out of this war, there's more hope for Ukraine as well.

And, as you point out, the big losers here are the countries that Wagner is active in: Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Sudan. Hopefully, the coup will break the support that Russia's been giving to Wagner in Africa which may lead to them being extinguished there as well.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Will this allow Lukashenko to draw in Wagner troops and give them a base of operations, allowing him to provide some sort of resistance against a hostile military takeover. Some sort of insurance/body guard type deal, since Prigozhin also would not want it to be annexed now he is "safe"?

Shoigu focusing more on Africa will allow him to rotate PMC Patriot in and Wagner out, giving him the ability to become even richer.

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