this post was submitted on 28 May 2025
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Here is the original article (in German).

China, including Hong Kong, is responsible for 80% of the sanctions circumvention against Russia, but denies any involvement.

This is stated in an internal report of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs [...]

The document states that the EU sanctions have had a significant impact on the Russian economy, in particular by restricting exports of military goods through Armenia, Serbia, Uzbekistan and India. At the same time, problems persist with Kazakhstan, the UAE and Turkey, which do not provide complete data on export suspensions.

At the meeting, EU Sanctions Commissioner David O'Sullivan stressed that China, including Hong Kong, plays a key role in circumventing sanctions. However, Beijing denies any involvement in this. At the same time, the participation of EU companies in these schemes also weakens the European Commission's position in negotiations with third countries.

The document also reports on the EU's success in fighting Russia's "shadow fleet". O'Sullivan called for decisive action against the ports in Turkey, India and Malaysia that serve these vessels.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago

this is unsuprising, however there's been at different points in the war, different pathways where Russia got their stuff through.

Kazakhstan and especially Kyrgyzstan were both notorious for being highways of western materials, components, and in some cases finished goods, going into Russia from "Unfriendly Nations"

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 day ago (4 children)

I feel China isn't under enough pressure, they get to play both sides. I am normally not for 'you're either with us or against us'-diplomacy but if you can't support our enemy and consider yourself neutral at the same time.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

China can endure more than the west so it would be a difficult fight to pick. Sure we could tackle their economy but Trump already lost that battle. It showed they were willing to take short term hits and they, as an authoritarian state, cam weather them better the west and the fledgling Oligopoly US.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

True, but his pressure was very hard and that is not the only way to put pressure on someone. I don't think any country should go about it like 'we will make them do what we want because we are big and powerful' but I think in this it would be fair to say 'these are our interests and if you harm them it will make us less willing to do things that are in your interest'.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago

When all you have is a broken hammer, everything is a nail about to get fucked.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

From Russias view China is also supporting their enemy by providing material to Ukraine and NATO countries that supply Ukraine.

In 2024 China remained largest import origin for Ukraine at $17 billion.

Biggest import categories in 2024 are electronics, machinery and aircraft. It is safe to assume a substantial part of this to have went into Ukrainian defense.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/imports-by-country
https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/imports/china

In terms of trade i would argue China to be indeed neutral. When it comes to diplomatic cover and Chinese mercenaries being employed by Russia, China is supporting Russia beyond being neutral.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago

If they were open about trading with Russia and publicly exclaimed they do not want to be a part in this and choose to trade like they did before the war they would be neutral and EU wouldn't have much to complain about. But that is not the case, they lie about their business with Russia and therefor aren't neutral but 'neutral' if you get what I mean.

[–] [email protected] -5 points 1 day ago (2 children)

That's literally exactly what neutrality means, they don't care who you consider an enemy because they're not picking a side

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

@[email protected]

In 2023, Lu Shaye, then Chinese ambassador to France, openly claimed that former Soviet-republics - like Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and many others - have no legal status (now Mr. Shaye serves as Special Representative of the Chinese Government for European Affairs).

China has a high interest in supporting Russia, and it goes far beyond Ukraine and Europe.

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Russia at the start of May o to celebrate victory day in Moscow, Chinese state-controlled media outlet South China Morning Post reported that China's Xi Jinping kicked off his state visit by thanking Moscow for supporting Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China.

In a signed article in Russia’s state-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper ... [Xi Jinping wrote that Taiwan's] unification [with China] must be upheld as part of the post-war international order ... Celebrating the “enduring friendship” between Moscow and Beijing, he said the two countries had supported each other since World War II ...

Two of the global challenges -the war in Ukraine and China's aggression against Taiwan- appear to be closely linked, at least from China's point of view.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago (2 children)

That’s literally exactly what neutrality means, they don’t care who you consider an enemy because they’re not picking a side

Aside from the fact that China accounts for 80% of sanctions circumvention routes against Russia, thus supporting the Kremlin in its war, China is supplying Russian military factories with chemicals, gunpowder, components, just to name another example.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

Yeah but they're not doing it for free and both China and India are paying cheap rates for Russian oil. If Russia is using that oil to barter for goods then that helps them but not the Russian coffers. This war will end when Russia runs out of money and can't pay large signing bonuses anymore.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 1 day ago
[–] [email protected] -4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

How would you want to pressure China? China is exporting nuclear power plants to Britain and electric cars to the EU. They are an advanced country that does not need western technologies. Unless you do a naval blockade, China doesn't need us but we need China.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)

China is exporting nuclear power plants to Britain and electric cars to the EU ... China doesn’t need us but we need China.

I have to respectfully disagree with that view.

First of all, the EU is a net exporter of electric cars. In 2024, the bloc exported 830,000 electric vehicles (+9 per cent year-on-year), while imports were at about 680,000 electric cars.

While imports from China remained steady in 2024 at more than 400 000 electric cars (60% of EU imports), the share of Chinese OEMs in imports from China grew to two-thirds in 2024, up from 50% in the previous year. The Chinese OEM Geely accounted for almost 40% of these imports, mainly through its brand Volvo Cars, according to statistics by the IEA.

Within the EU, sales of EVs by Chinese brands count for a small fraction of the total sales volume, with China’s BYD having sold ~7,000 in April 2025, for example (no 10 in the bloc), while market leader VW counts for ~200,000. If the EU would bloc Chinese EV imports, for example, it would hurt China extensively (supposedly more than the EU) as the Chinese economy could not sell its massive (and intentionally created) overcapacity. The EU doesn't need Chinese EVs, but China needs the EU (and other foreign markets) if it wants to maintains its business model.

More importantly, however, there are very strong mutual dependencies between China and the West that have the potential to result in high economic costs for both sides in the event of a geopolitical conflict, may it be caused by Beijing’s ongoing support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, a possible Chinese attack against Taiwan, or other events.

The Western share of Chinese imports is certainly at very high levels for many very important key products such as semiconductors and some machinery.

But the West also accounts for a high share of China's imports of other important goods, such as some foodstuffs, certain raw materials, and also some luxury products like perfume. If we look at China’s import/export ratios, we see it is 65:1 for ores, slag, and ash, and with an import share of almost 50 per cent the West holds a high leverage in this sector.

Chinese import/export ratios for mineral fuels is 8:1 (although the Western share is below 20 per cent here as the majority comes form emerging economies), for meat it is 36:1, for grain 21:1.

China is almost unilaterally dependent on aircraft and spacecraft machinery and parts thereof. Although the import/export ratio is quite low (2:1), the western share of Chinese imports is some 97 percent, according to the German Economic Institute (opens pdf – German source). This category displays China’s highest import dependency on the West, and there is practically no substitution by alternative trading partners and there appears to be only a small degree of substitutability possible through an expansion of domestic production.

[If interested, EU-China and other trade data with relevant links can be found here and using the Trading Economics data posted by @[email protected] in this thread – and many other data bases, but make sure you look at the customs data, not China’s official statistics or something.]

So I don’t say that the EU or the West doesn’t depend on China, but I say that China depends also on the West if we look at the data of hilghly complex global supply chains. There are strong mutual dependencies.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 1 day ago

This sounds impressive without anything that is existential for China. All commodities can be replaced if China pays a small premium for nonwestern sources while the rest of the world buys from western sources.

Airplane parts are inconvenient but China is starting to build their own aircrafts. If sanctions start, they will be able to create knockoffs for all necessary spare parts. But they also have a highspeed rail network, so they won't be worried too much.

At this point in development, pressuring China will only accellerate the full independence of China. It would be Huawei on a national scale.

The dangerous part is that many former colonies won't side with their former masters if they get the opportunity to break free.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I disagree, especially with US moving away. We certainly need china for a lot of things, but aside the eu is their biggest economic partner and China relies heavily on export for keeping their economy running. Not giving access to western technologies is a way of putting pressure on China, but I think you're right the amount of weight we heavy over China greatly decreased over the last years. But there are many ways in which Europe can put it's weight in the fight and personally I hope they will mainly do so by using soft power. China might not be very susceptible to talks about moral values if you look at how they threat Uyghurs for example, but I think the communist party does know how it feel to be the underdog. What Russia is doing to Ukraine is in no way fair and China has also been treated unfairly many times before in history. Also China wants to expand beyond producing stuff for the rest of the world, and since they are becoming more expensive they might need to move away from production just like the middle-east needs to move away from oil. Just because they are getting more advanced technologically and are getting a stronger military etc, does not mean they don't need friends. Their friendship with Europe is under pressure if they actively support enemies of the EU.

[–] Ghyste 16 points 1 day ago (1 children)

If they deny involvement then they should have no complaint if the various routes of circumvention are shut down by international efforts.

[–] [email protected] -5 points 1 day ago

Good luck with that