I was going to post this as its own submission, but the title is so long it doesn't even fit in the submission length lol:
this post was submitted on 22 May 2025
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You mean the ‘split’ was performative bullshit used to get some media coverage? Well I never!
It wasn't performative, the decision to split was not a universally popular one within either party room and both leaders are under a lot of pressure. I think both have realised that such a snap decision was not a particularly wise one and are now reconsidering before their respective frontbench positions are locked in. It doesn't necessarily mean they will reunite.
Surely they will reunite, it's political death for both parties if they don't. It gets significantly more difficult once the shadow ministries are handed out. They have to do it now or face aninternal riot.
The split makes more sense for the moderate Liberals, getting away from The Nationals does give them the opportunity to free up their policy platform a bit and finally start addressing some of the issues that the conservative faction wants to continue ignoring. Though the split also looks very bad for Ley's leadership which is probably why she has raced back to the negotating table. It makes very little sense for The Nationals, beyond Littleproud protecting his own leadership by taking a hardline stance on key policy issues to appease his internal critics. Neither the party, nor its voters, gain any power from leaving the Coalition to become a minor party and lose all of extra staff, pay and influence that they otherwise would have had. It's all well and good to say you're taking a principled position to advocate for your constituents, but if you massively undercutting your own political power in the process then what is the point? The only thing I can think of is that they'll be free to negotiate with Labor in the senate at the expense of the Liberals and Greens, but is that actually a real possibility?
I don't see many issues that the nationals and Labour align on the the greens or liberals don't, maybe threading the needle on land access issues that satisfy farmers, in that they don't hand land over to resources companies or lock it up in protected parks? But I don't see that as significant enough to justify the split.
It just feels like all tactics and no strategy, at the meta level they have to be in coalition to form government in the medium term. I could see a liberal party moderate resurgence over a longer horizon by going it alone, but I just don't think tjat their significant funders actually care or would tolerate that, they just want to maintain the current lasse faire regulatory system that allow them to rip cash out of the ground and pockets of Australian consumers in the short term.
maybe threading the needle on land access issues that satisfy farmers, in that they don’t hand land over to resources companies or lock it up in protected parks?
Yeah that's along the lines of what I was thinking, but I agree that it doesn't seem logical. There's clearly some weird stuff going on; this whole saga on 7.30 last night was bizarre.
Yeah maybe I’m giving them too much credit.
Or maybe to get some concessions out of the Liberals. Dunno.