Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.
For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community
New piece from 404 Media: Facebook Pushes Its Llama 4 AI Model to the Right, Wants to Present “Both Sides”
On a related note, Baldur Bjarnason has chimed in noting how he called this exact shit happening:
Remember when I told you that using these LLMs was like giving US tech a bigotry dial for all your writing?
I feel like some of the doomers are already setting things up to pivot when their most major recent prophecy (AI 2027) fails:
From here:
(My modal timeline has loss of control of Earth mostly happening in 2028, rather than late 2027, but nitpicking at that scale hardly matters.)
It starts with some rationalist jargon to say the author agrees but one year later...
AI 2027 knows this. Their scenario is unrealistically smooth. If they added a couple weird, impactful events, it would be more realistic in its weirdness, but of course it would be simultaneously less realistic in that those particular events are unlikely to occur. This is why the modal narrative, which is more likely than any other particular story, centers around loss of human control the end of 2027, but the median narrative is probably around 2030 or 2031.
Further walking the timeline back, adding qualifiers and exceptions that the authors of AI 2027 somehow didn't explain before. Also, the reason AI 2027 didn't have any mention of Trump blowing up the timeline doing insane shit is because Scott (and maybe some of the other authors, idk) like glazing Trump.
I expect the bottlenecks to pinch harder, and for 4x algorithmic progress to be an overestimate...
No shit, that is what every software engineering blogging about LLMs (even the credulous ones) say, even allowing LLMs get better at raw code writing! Maybe this author is better in touch with reality than most lesswrongers...
...but not by much.
Nope, they still have insane expectations.
Most of my disagreements are quibbles
Then why did you bother writing this? Anyway, I feel like this author has set themselves up to claim credit when it's December 2027 and none of AI 2027's predictions are true. They'll exaggerate their "quibbles" into successful predictions of problems in the AI 2027 timeline, while overlooking the extent to which they agreed.
I'll give this author +10 bayes points for noticing Trump does unpredictable batshit stuff, and -100 for not realizing the real reason why Scott didn't include any call out of that in AI 2027.
Apparently including a camera-esque filename in prompts for the latest mid journey release can make it more photorealistic. Unfortunately it also looks like the distinctive AI art style was pretty key to preventing the usual set of AI generated image "tells". Mirrors, hands, teeth, etc are all very visibly wrong.
Some dark urge found me skim-reading a recent AI doomer blog post. I was startled awake by this most unsettling passage:
My wife wrote a letter to our infant daughter recently. It concluded:
I don’t know that we can offer you a good world, or even one that will be around for all that much longer. But I hope we can offer you a good childhood. [...]
Though the theoretical possibility had always been percolating somewhere in the back of my mind, it wasn't until now that I viscerally realized that P(doomers reproducing) was greater than zero. And with other doomers no less.
Left brooding on this development, I drudged along until-
BAhahaha what the fuck
I can't. This is beyond parody.
Completely lost it here. Nothing could have prepared me for the poorly handwritten wrist tattoo.
Creating space for miracles
Doom feels really likely to me. [...] But who knows, perhaps one of my assumptions is wrong. Perhaps there's some luck better than humanity deserves. If this happens to be the case, I want to be in a position to make use of it.
Oh how rational! Willing to entertain the idea that maybe, theoretically, the doomsday prediction could be off by a few days?
I'm not sure that I ever strongly felt that I would die at eighty or so. I had a religious youth and believed in an immortal soul. Even when I came out of that, I quickly believed in the potential of radical transhuman life extension.
This guy thought he was getting clean but he was actually replacing weed with heroin
I really convinced myself that "doomsday cult" was hyperbole but uhh, nope, it's 107% real.
:'( sad one. feel bad for the bebe, being raised by insane people.
Oh that tattoo is regrettable
Doom feels really likely to me. […] But who knows, perhaps one of my assumptions is wrong. Perhaps there’s some luck better than humanity deserves. If this happens to be the case, I want to be in a position to make use of it.
This line actually really annoys me, because they are already set up for moving the end date on their doomsday prediction as needed while still maintaining their overall doomerism.
At the start they state
The disappointment of imminent death is all the more crushing because just a few years ago researchers announced breakthrough discoveries that suggested [existing, adult] humans could have healthspans of thousands of years. To drop the analogy, here I'm talking about my transhumanist beliefs. The laws of physics don't demand that humans slowly decay and die at eighty. It is within our engineering prowess to defeat death, and until recently I thought we might just do that, and I and my loved ones would live for millennia, becoming post-human superbeings.
This is, frankly, bonkers. I'd rate the following in descending order of probability
If the first happens, it removes the material requirements for the latter things to happen. This is an extreme form of "denial of the flesh", the inability to realize that without food or water no-one will be working on AI or life extension tech.
"Im 99% sure I will die in the next year because of super duper intelligence, but in a world where that doesnt happen i plan to live 1000 years" surely is a forecast. Surprised they don't break their own necks on the whiplash from this take.
I don’t know that we can offer you a good world, or even one that will be around for all that much longer. But I hope we can offer you a good childhood. […]
When “The world is gonna end soon so let’s just rawdog from now on” gets real
yet I hold
space for it
Rupi Kaur
should sueSome more low effort image posting. This zine was in Connolly Books for free. I'm not sure who the author is, but I thought the text was spot on and the illustrations were great. Sorry for no captions/transcriptions
Tired: Propaganda of the deed
Wired: Propaganda of the Sneer
Samizdat of the Sneer ?
I don't think whoever wrote this zine goes here, but they should!
Otoh having different groups of the sneer, sneercells (no wait that name needs work) if you will. Can also be useful, esp as authoritarianism etc increases. (Not that I think govs would go after us, apart from an infiltration risk).
E: Hell, I myself am prob a risk factor. First the Dutch secret service should have file on me (else they are not doing their job, I was active in student activism, and did STEM (which also had an active (and targeted for infiltration, we know because counterhacks) hacker group) education (a known terrorism risk increaser), before my faulty brain wiring caused me to drop off the map a bit, and I know several of these groups have been targeted for infiltration recently, and long ago). I also have had just too many official twitter police accounts follow me and then unfollow me without liking a single post for it to be just a coincidence (three times being enemy action). Of course, I'm now old and passive, so if they still think I'm a risk they certainly are not doing their job (I could be a source of information however). But this is enough for me to consider that my real life identity is known enough to be a risk. And this is just about the Dutch police/secret service, there is also the risk of TracingWoodGrains like people trying to get all up in your (social) networks to try and get validation from themotte. And I have read enough stories about cybercriminals that you need to think about this stuff long before it is actually needed, also I'm paranoid.
One more pic:
Subtle dig on Nick Land not being relevant anymore considering that drawing is of him 30+ years ago.
What does he look like now? I shudder to think.
BALD
Moldbug really is the one exception here isn't he?
From according to yt, that was him in 2017. This is the clearest I could (quickly) find, others are just low res webcam things.
Yowza.
Time waits for nobody.
Okay, one more pic, the back cover. Can't say how reliable these sources are.
Any idea why the flag reassembles the Swiss one (the proportions are wrong though)?
It's the network state flag. Which I presume is based on the Swiss flag, because they are horny for the idea of a small, rich, well-connected country that profits from mass murder and exploitation.
Evgeny Morozov: The New Legislators of Silicon Valley
Thus, what appears as intellectual fast food – the ultra-processed thought-nuggets deep fried in venture capital – often conceals wholesome ingredients sourced from a gourmet pantry of quite some sophistication.
What am I even reading.
Cognitive dissonance
Also, cognitive dysentery
Lol yeah I was thinking about either posting about cognitive dissonance or mentioning that trying to find the kernels of corn in shit still means you are digging through shit. Cognitive dysentery is so much better.
As a wise friend of mine said years ago, when hipsters drinking PBR were having a cultural moment, "You can say you're drinking piss beer 'ironically', but at the end of the day, you're still drinking piss beer."
