For the map enthused!
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post relevant content: interesting, informative, and/or pretty maps
be nice
Please note that in Germany you get 2 votes in the federal election. 1st is for a candidate to directly represent your district, 2nd is for a party nation wide. The map only shows the election result for the 2nd vote.
Here's another map to show the party affiliation of winners of the 1st vote:
Colors are the same, except blue. Blue represents CSU, essentially the Bavarian version of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union).
For anyone interested in psephology or electoral systems, the system Germany uses is called Mixed-Member Proportional. It mixes the benefits of FPTP (having a local member who is your local area's most liked candidate) with proportional systems (having the overall Bundestag proportionally representing the will of the people).
The system is pretty neat, but it does come with some issues. See all those dark blue districts in Bavaria? That's way more seats for the CSU than they would be entitled to by the proportional representation.
Previously, these "overhanging mandates" were handled by simply increasing the size is Parliament until proportionality is met ("compensate mandates"). This was fine for decades, where there were always only a couple of those. But as CSU votership dropped (among other things), we were looking at more than 200 additional MEPs (in a parliament of officially 598 seats).
So it got reformed. Parliament now has a fixed 630 seats. The "overhanging mandates" get dropped based on the margin by which they won their electoral district (with some sorting by state mixed in). Most of those districts still got their representative via the party lists, but there actually are 4 districts that are unrepresented now. So it's not a perfect system either.
I’m shocked AFD is eastern
I'm not. Populism thrives when people are dissatisfied and angry. East Germany is economically not as strong as the west, despite decades of reunion.
Sounds like it’s following in America’s footsteps, where rural and rust belt regions were kinda left behind by the federal government. The south is more complex but similar.
Soviet brain damage lingers on.
Sad to see 1/3 of german voted for nazi in both local and federal vote.
20% is 1/5. It is still too much but not the end. 80% did not vote for them. And the left go stronger too and keeps growing. This is the beginn of the fight, not the end.
Edit: I take it back. FUCK THE CDU!
It's funny to see Berlin, a Linke haven, lost in a huge sea of nazis.
“Extremes” both sides, ie. the Nazis and the Left party, are more popular in the east, no doubt because it is poorer, so people are less satisfied with the status quo.
"The planet is fine - the people are fucked." George Carlin
There’s the 1/5 AfD and 1/4 Union. Maybe the westies start to take the socio economic discrepancies between them and their eastern counterparts serious.
If you're wondering what the AfD districts in the West were: Gelsenkirchen in the north and Kaiserslautern in the south.
The most notable thing in Kaiserslautern is Ramstein air base and friends. I guess the military votes far-right.
I have no idea what's up with Gelsenkirchen. SPD came second with CDU just behind, so maybe it's what would be vote splitting in a dumber electoral system. As it is, the map is just a map.
You can find an interactive version here.
Gelsenkirchen is a traditional working class area, which used to be secure SPD heartland. SPD has lost voters massively to AfD among workers over the years, including among the immigrant working class.
Soldiers in Germany tend to vote CDU. The last couple of years the head of the Bundestag's defense commission Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the FDP was super popular. In the past SPD was also really strong. These two polls on the Bundeswehr subreddit have FDP and CDU together with a supermajority. Now that's of course not representative, but gives you an idea that the military doesn't vote far right.
including among the immigrant working class.
Really?? That doesn't seem possible, since people tend not to vote for candidates that openly hate them. Do you have a source?
Soldiers in Germany tend to vote CDU. The last couple of years the head of the Bundestag’s defense commission Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the FDP was super popular. In the past SPD was also really strong. These two polls on the Bundeswehr subreddit have FDP and CDU together with a supermajority.
That makes sense. CDU is (by German standards) strong on defence, even I know that.
Now that’s of course not representative, but gives you an idea that the military doesn’t vote far right.
I was reminded of the scandals relating to Wehrmacht idolisation, but I have no idea how how widespread a problem that is, so I'll defer to you.
https://taz.de/Tuerken-fuer-die-AfD/!5449750/
This is about Germans with Turkish background. It's the same as in other countries: We came here legally and are law abiding taxpayers. These illegal newcomers are criminals and ruin the image of all immigrants. It's about law and order and strong leadership. If you vote Erdogan in Turkey, AfD is closest in Germany. The Grey Wolves are the biggest right wing extremist organizations in Germany as well, so keep that in mind.
German-Turks are also specifically targeted like in this video by Krah appealing to nationalist sentiments and referring back to German-Turkish alliance going back to WW1.
scandals relating to Wehrmacht idolisation
Yes, this happens from time to time as does other crap. The severity of these cases varies.
In 2023 the Bundeswehr let go of 62 soldiers, among them 10 officers, for extremism. It's not just nazis, but also for example anti-vax conspiracy nutters. I don't have any comparisons of these numbers to other armed forces.
The Bundeswehr emphasizes democratic values and educates people along their principles of Innere Führung and Staatsbürger in Uniform. For example that soldiers are ultimately serving their conscience is stressed. Structurally the Bundeswehr also has differences to other militaries. There are no separate military courts for example. Crimes involving soldiers get dealt with by regular courts.
In 2019 about 15% of soldiers have immigrant parents or immigrated themselves. Of course they can be extremists just as well.
Interesting! I found this study with an actual table of migrant political support by origin: https://www.dezim-institut.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Demo_FIS/publikation_pdf/FA-6235.pdf
Unfortunately Turks get lumped in with MENA in this one, and it comes out to around the the same as for other groups - probably because support from those derived from the rest of the Islamic world is low.
I can't actually read German, but from the percentages not adding up I assume this is some kind of favourability rather than voting intention, and it still comes out to just 20% or so.
It looks dramatic, but afaik the old GDR states have much lower pop and density. Unless germany starts some funny business with electors and whatnot, i daresay this is not that bad of a result.
It is so striking where AfD is popular thought.
A long time ago I visited one of my parents' friends in East Germany with them, and I said something about how it was good that Germany reunified after the wall fell.
My parent's friend said, people here don't think it was a good thing. People here felt like they lost the war.
I never realized that was a thing.
When you grow up in west Germany, you kinda never realize that the GDR was basically annexed by west Germany.
The majority of people in the GDR actually didn't want to turn capitalist, but they rather wanted another, more liberal form of socialism. Also, the Treuhand basically destroyed the east German industry which was then bought up by the West.
So, actually the "finally reunited" narrative is the one that's overly romantic, not (only) nostalgia for the GDR.
On this subject, I really recommend the documentary "A perfect crime" from Netflix.
On top of that, East Germany didn't get the investment they were promised after unification. I don't think it is a coincidence that the people who didn't live under Neoliberalism 40 years ago are rejecting it today.
Interesting, indeed. Maybe it's a form of nostalgia? We still have plenty of people missing the comunists in my country, usually folk that had it better during the regime. But I never heard "we felt like we lost the war".
Reuters has an interactive map where you can see the percentages for each district
Shows a bit more of a positive view in the sense if your looking at this as an American and think AFD got a majority in all east Germany, they didn't, the bluest areas are 40-44% percent while most are at around the 32-36%, but they got the plurality. A bit depressing though in that all of west Germany they're taking 15-20% which this map doesn't show well
Downvote me more please.
You can't display a map like this on map enthusiasts that gives a false representation of the election based on land area instead of population density and not be called out on it. It's a shit way to represent data and sows more discord than gives the proper story of what happened
Hmm, that's true.
Actually, if this wasn't a map community I'd be more worried. In theory people here will know maps hide heterogeneity.
Based Aachen! 💚
Iron curtain still alive.
So, will the German Nazis use the same playbook as the American ones and claim that the election was rigged?
Unlikely, they're happy with their result.
It's however possible that the conservatives will run the Austrian playbook. Talks with the social democrats fail, "we have a responsibility to Germany to form a government", then make a coalition with the AfD (Nazis).
Back to your original question: the BSW will likely contest the elections, as they have missed the 5% threshold by only ~14k votes and there are evident irregularities. For example, many Germans living abroad, for example those living in the US, had almost no chance to cast their vote.
Talks with the social democrats fail, "we have a responsibility to Germany to form a government", then make a coalition with the AfD (Nazis).
That feels familiar somehow.
You caneven see the big University cities in Germany: cologne, Münster, Aachen.
Can any Germans tell me what the deal is with the Left? It looks like the only seats they're winning are in areas you'd think of as AfD areas. Is it just a matter of the poorer more overlooked areas becoming polarised? Or are the German Left kinda tankish?