this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024
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politics

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Edit 12:11 PM 11/6 Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15) called for Trump.

Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10) for Harris.

2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.

Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.

Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.

https://www.guampdn.com/news/guam-picks-harris-over-trump-in-non-binding-presidential-straw-poll/article_657b06b8-9b97-11ef-9896-1302c4e2ebe9.html

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

42 EC votes from Battleground States:

10+15+11+6

NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.

Which leaves 264 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

(page 9) 50 comments
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[–] [email protected] 13 points 2 days ago (1 children)

My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:

"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

3 hours to the next. Gyam, Northern Mariana Islands, but no EC votes.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I'm starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I've been thinking about this too.

I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.

For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.

Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.

Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.

Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 days ago

God I hope so... The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a "likely voter".

We're seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 "Likely Voter" polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren't counted as "likely".

[–] [email protected] -5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 22 hours ago) (2 children)

Looking forward to checking the results on my next break and seeing trump winning every swing state. I knew he would win, it is both the funniest and worst outcome, it was meant to be. We're gonna watch his brain turn ever more thoroughly into goo for the next ~4 years and make even more insane headlines than last time.

*on my next break and I called it lol. Nothing called by AP yet but he's up in MI, PA, GA, and WI. Strap in.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 days ago (1 children)

What a year it's been here in the politics channel. I'm still here. Exhausted.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 days ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 days ago

Good for you! We just got the email at work "Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager."

Of course, I'm vote by mail, ballot's been in since 10/24.

[–] [email protected] 57 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Texas waited until the 29th of October to mail out my ballot. As of today (November 3rd), I have yet to receive it. I fully expect Texas to fuck me over.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 days ago

Everything is rigger in Texas

[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (7 children)

That's crazy late to mail it OUT. Too late even to mail it back. You'll have to either find a drop box or hand deliver it to county elections HQ.

If you don't get it in time, you can always vote in person.

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago (3 children)

Any predictions on what musk / xitter's role in all this will be?

They can basically call states for republicans early.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don't think X has their own election coverage, do they?

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 days ago

That's kind of what I mean. They don't have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.

If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I wish Cholensky would finally be President.

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[–] [email protected] 33 points 3 days ago* (last edited 8 hours ago)

8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific

Puerto Rico - Nonbinding - Harris win.
United States Virgin Islands - Not voting.
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut - Called For Harris
(D 3) Delaware - Called For Harris
(D 3) District of Columbia - Called For Harris
(R 30) Florida - Called For Trump
(BG 16) Georgia - Called For Trump
(R 11) Indiana - Called for Trump
(R 8) Kentucky - Called for Trump
(D 4) Maine - Proportional
(D 10) Maryland - Called For Harris
(D 11) Massachusetts - Called For Harris
(BG 15) Michigan - Called For Trump
(D 4) New Hampshire - Called For Harris
(D 14) New Jersey - Called For Harris
(D 28) New York - Called For Harris
(BG 16) North Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 17) Ohio - Called For Trump
(BG 19) Pennsylvania - Called For Trump
(D 4) Rhode Island - Called For Harris
(R 9) South Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 11) Tennessee - Called For Trump
(D 3) Vermont - Called For Harris
(D 13) Virginia - Called For Harris
(R 4) West Virginia - Called for Trump

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago

Appreciate you putting this together!

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