this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2024
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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The idea of oil supply peaking, or so-called peak oil, surfaced as early as the 1880s, with some predicting a looming exhaustion in the US due to the demise of the Pennsylvania oil fields.

Throughout history, repeated predictions of peak oil supply have repeatedly been moved further into the future, and at ever-higher levels.

In 2024, oil supply continues to expand, driven by improved economics and continuous advancements in technology that have helped lower costs, open up new frontiers and add new reserves. Moreover, there are no concerns about the available resource base, which is large enough for this century and beyond.

Ultimately, peak oil supply has never come to pass, and predictions of peak oil demand are following a similar trend. Time and again, oil has defied expectations regarding peaks. Logic and history suggest that it will continue to do so.

Note: "Logic"?

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