I'm off that week so I predict I'll be pretty drunk regardless of the result
this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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It's a toss up and I have no special crystal ball, but if I had to do arbitrage on it I think the risk of a 2000-style tie is even higher than projected (already 10% per Nate Silver), just based on the vibes I'm hearing.
57% chance of Trump. If I thought the odds were otherwise, I would bet otherwise: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html
We will either get Fascism or Fascism Liteβ’
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