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understated detail: NDP snuck up on Libs? that's a pleasant surprise. Maybe people did notice that all of recent progressive changes were forced by NDP onto Libs... interesting
looking at the graph it does leave impression that Lib losses went straight to NDP gains
Good, they need to get fucked and do better
... or, as we call it, a split vote.
minority government with NDP+Lib holding majority is OK. Cons can grab majority but will be gridlocked on every move, meaning we'll retain status quo for a bit, until Libs and NDP will decide to call election
Cons can grab majority but will be gridlocked on every move
Genuine question, why the assumption of gridlock if the conservatives form government with a majority?
look at the numbers. NDP +Libs outnumber them in Parliament so anything they try to pass... including budget is in NDP+Libs hands... if budget does not pass... it's auto-trigger for election if memory serves me right.
NDP +Libs outnumber them now, yes. I assumed by "Cons can grab majority" you meant a majority of seats following an election, no?
My understanding is that party with the most votes gets to form government, is it not so?
Right, the party with the most seats won would get first shot at forming government.
If your assumption is that the Conservatives would win the next election with a majority, then they would be able to form government without needing to rely on any other party (like the Libs rely on the NDP now).
Since political parties in parliamentary democracies typically vote uniformly, a majority party is generally able to pass legislation regardless of the position of opposition parties, which is why I questioned the presumption of gridlock.
Now imagine what a jump we could see should the NDP install a charismatic, no nonsense, working class leader with union credentials.
Come on Former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi!
You are NOT taking him from Alberta till he defeats Danielle Smith.
That’s the biggest thing they could do
Singh just isn’t a winner. He doesn’t get good media spots, he doesn’t push the message of what he can do, he is less negative than Mulcair was, but he’s not inspiring and hopeful like Layton.
Actually the current situation is very similar to Layton’s time before the NDP exploded in popularity.
less negative than Mulcair
I really thought Mulcair would have been a great Fed NDP leader, though: Smart, fast, and marketable.
Ditto. Mulcair was quick on his feet and not at all a dummy. I'd have paid money to see him do an "On what date..." to various members of the Trudeau government.
He got branded as "angry Tom" by a media that really wanted a milquetoast centrist candidate, and he made the mistake of trying to tack right to get respect from said media, only to have Trudeau flank him on the left.
It's absolutely insane that our media is so linked to the United States that our Conservatives only start to fall when people see American Conservatives getting beat-down and shamed in the presidential race. (and rightly so)
Are we, as Canadians, unable to tell how shitty our own Right-Wing is unless the American Mirror tells us so?
I'm from Quebec and we have this character called Elvis Gratton and one of his famous line is "Ils l'ont l'affaire les americains" or in bastardized English "Americans know what they are doing".
Elvis Gratton is a caricature of a typical man of that era where a lot of Quebecers were enamored with the US. At that time in the US, it was the golden era of the American dream (but we know how it turned out).
When I see conservatives spreading their bullshit, it reminds me of that character which is not very intelligent and how pervasive the US conservative propaganda is in Canada.
Maybe Canadians are smart and able to learn from the US not to elect right wing psychopaths. I really hope so, because Conservatives never solve any problem. They only make things worse.
While I’ve had similar thoughts, I have to wonder if the reverse is true. We’re seeing an uprising of joy and caring; something as equally infectious as the hateful, controlling rhetoric of the Trump-era Republican Party.
I think (hope) people see the two options and are drawn to the joy. Being angry is exhausting.
There is a lot of terrible out there we need to work together to solve. Some of it is sad, depressing, frustrating, wildly unjust-but we can be joyful in tackling these issues. Maybe not all the time, but then no one is ever one thing or one mood or one emotion. Nevertheless, a campaign of joy can make us realize there is indeed another way.
Looking at Trump’s tragic demagoguery and seeing what’s going on with the Harris/Walz campaign , it’s not hard to believe more and more people are thinking “you know what, I want that.”
So hearing PP using the same old poor-us, divisive, othering talking points begins to take on some of the same burden. It’s tired. It’s ugly. It’s empty.
One can dream right?
uprising of joy and caring
Boggles me that people see Harris that way, but I guess things are just that bad.
People have been treating a Conservative majority as basically foretold for the last while, but the election is still over a year out. Personally, I've been much more reserved with my feelings about our current political trajectory. Recent events from south of the border should make it very clear that even a few months is forever in politics. We're not in what I would consider an ideal position, but it's much too early to assume the sky is going to fall.
Polling is essentially meaningless until an election is called, and given none of the parties are making policy promises at this point it is more of a state of sentiment about the current government.
I really hope that whoever gets elected this next election that they only get a minority so there is at least some chance of ensuring they don't do anything too extreme.
That’s not entirely true
Polls still predict how people will behave, but there is a lot of room for events to happen.
If you properly weight your polls with probability of outcomes, it’s useful. That’s not easy though.
Trudeau is our Biden. He's an old news incumbent and he's got to go if we want any chance of beating snide Skippy. Trudeau cannot possibly have missed the way Biden bowed out and made way for new blood, and how that has energized the left and moved the needle with swing voters.
The same thing could happen with the NDP, if Singh would bow out. Of course, if they both pull a Biden, it might split the vote even worse. So, I guess we'd better hope that the NDP ditches Singh, but that Trudeau, unable to bear the thought of living in an empty house without Sophie and the kids, desperately clings to power like a madman.
I can’t wait for Pierre Poilievre to lose.
Imagine him losing to an AOC type. 💦
I know she's not exactly progressive like AOC is, but I'm still baffled as to why the Liberals aren't running Crystia Freeland.
While there she attracted the attention of the KGB, which tagged her with the code name "Frida", and Soviet newspapers, who attacked her as a foreigner meddling in their internal affairs over her contacts with Ukrainian activists. The KGB surveilled Freeland and tapped her phone calls, and documented the young Canadian activist delivering money, video and audio recording equipment, and a personal computer to contacts in Ukraine. She used a diplomat at the Embassy of Canada in Moscow to send material abroad in a secret diplomatic pouch, worked with foreign journalists on stories about life in the Soviet Union, and organized marches and rallies to attract attention and support from Western countries. On her return from a trip to London in March 1989, Freeland was denied re-entry to the Soviet Union. By the time her activism within Ukraine came to an end, Freeland had become the subject of a high-level case study from the KGB on how much damage a single determined individual could inflict on the Soviet Union; a 2021 Globe and Mail article quoted the report by a former officer of the KGB, which had described Freeland as "a remarkable individual", "erudite, sociable, persistent, and inventive in achieving her goals."
Nenshi for the NDP would be excellent, but I doubt Alberta will let him go.
EDIT: And ladies, I am so, so sorry about the gender gap there. Jesus Christ.
I said this above, but I'll repeat it here: Freeland has spent the last near-decade getting Hillary'ed by the right-wing. She's basically electoral poison at this point.
If they ran her, she'd join the Kim Campbell Glass Cliff Club.
I'm not seeing it. And they were never going to vote for her anyway, how is that a loss?
I hope not! He’s way too old to get voted out and have to figure out how to get a job and take care of himself like an adult. You can’t just throw a grifter off the public teat like that! The poor little landlord might starve!
Fascism does a really good job speaking to the anxieties and insecurities of men. Even young men. Especially young men.
Anyone who doesn't see the warning signs is either historically or willfully ignorant.
Anyone who doesn’t see the warning signs is either historically or wilfully ignorant.
Which is why it's so embarrassing -- we live in the information age and these people are still falling for tricks from hundreds of years ago, despite being told specifically this would happen.
But we're not in the correct-information-only age. There's a lot of noise to filter out, and most people aren't trained well enough to do that (i.e. critical thinking). I think that we may need to address that issue before things improve significantly at the political level.
But we’re not in the correct-information-only age. There’s a lot of noise to filter out, and most people aren’t trained well enough to do that (i.e. critical thinking).
I think my point is it's not 'most people' being untrained, because apparently women are not falling for the same thing. So we clearly already have the tools, just men (by and large) aren't using them.
Fascism is an expression of innate qualities of human psychology. It's barely even meaningful to consider it a political philosophy, it's no more than exploitation of induced fear and hatred for political ends. It will never go away.
I don't think it's helpful to think of our family, neighbours, and friends who find comfort in fascism as stupid. They are scared, not stupid. They're doing stupid things, but intelligence is no defense against emotional manipulation.
We didn't say they were stupid, we said wilfully ignorant, which they are quite literally being. Women aren't doing the same thing, so it's clear there are ways around it that men aren't using.
Or, that the psyop techniques researched a decade ago are just much more effective on men...
I think it's likely that we're just so used to being catered to, that as soon as we aren't, we start to throw tantrums and demand to be the centre of attention again. Like these numbers aren't just bad, they're terminal: Boomers are less conservative than men 35 and under.
We're fucked if we stay on this path. Why would the Cons care to actually do what they promised to if half of all men will vote for them no-matter what they do?
Even dullboy o'toole had more charisma than Squinty McProudBoy. Squinty's claim to fame is his "base" of racists, misogynists, white supremacists and assholes.
Sooo, I guess Canada really just wants to get railed by a bunch of rich pricks. Even across age, education and social class the CPC is the preferred party, with the only disparity being between women and men. I am no expert on women but I can tell you for sure that most men have tribe-brain and Poilievre knows it.
I want the NDP. I don’t want diet maga lite.
You can see how quickly their house of cards is collapsing down south. We need a smart woman to be in power here as well (of course that lets out the Alberta premiere).
Fortunately I’m an educated male who can think critically. Nobody I know who is well educated wants CPC in power. They have no plan, they just slam others when questioned.
Freeland isn't a dummy, not by any stretch, but she's also been Hillary'ed over the last several years and would be glass-cliff'ed if she ran. After that, the LPC bench is thin.
The NDP has a similar problem: they've spent the post-Layton era chasing donation candidates (which is why get Singh instead of Angus) and their bench is thin, too.
The CPC, curiously, as a relatively strong bench, mostly because they're packed to the gills with backstabbing business grifters.
Key takeaway, just over 1/3 (38%) of Canadians support the Conservatives. Not a glowing endorsement. We really need to be rid of FPTP so that we can get a government that actually reflects the will of all Canadians.
Won't matter since people are just voting con because they're tired of Trudeau
But if you had any intention of voting Trudeau, wouldn't your protest vote go to the NDP?
It's a MASSIVE right-wing stretch from 'Trudeau Sucks' to 'So let's elect Pierre Poilievre.'
They voted Trudeau in past elections, but now they're ready for a change and theybdont think they'll get that voting NDP.
I am actually pretty (relatively) happy with Trudeau but he needs to pull a Biden or it will be PP in office
You would think, but the NDP are seen as "unelectable".