I'd take him over Trump in a heartbeat, and intend to vote for him if he's the candidate. That said, there's nothing that can make these concerns about his mental capability go away, and he's already behind in the polling. They either need to come up with a plan to turn it around, or he should step aside.
This late, I fear massive fracturing. This is exactly what the Republicans want. I'm voting for anyone who is opposing Project 2025 in the end. Its just the worst time to not have an inspiring incumbent. Especially one who is intent on letting this all play out.
This is more time than most countries campaign seasons and the overwhelming rallying cry hasn't be "Biden", it's been "stop Trump". Either Harris will take over and there will be no meaningful fracturing because a vote for Biden is already effectively a vote for President Harris or we'll have a rush primary among mostly moderate options, which will limit how riled up people can get about any of them. I'm not particularly excited by any of the proposed options, but even the one I like the least will make me much more confident than keeping with Biden and waiting for the other shoe to drop.
It's not ideal, but Joe Biden will lose, so not ideal is a step in the right direction.
Its just a terrible time for the right to have a cult leader and it feels like we have nobody. I dont think the polls mean as much. But I remember them from 2020 and Biden was not trailing this hard. So you're probably right but its still not good and still could cause fracturing in a time when we basically need our own demagogue.
I feel like being an inspiring charismatic leader is kind of incompatible with the gauntlet that would get someone pre-approved as a party-selected candidate. I'm having a hard time thinking of an establishment-favored figure who's really charismatic. Buttigieg maybe? But he was sort of out of left field and it feels like he's been more of a tool to deploy to soften bad news stories than someone the establishment is raising up as a potential next big thing. Booker is probably the most party-supported charismatic figure, but I don't think relentless positivity is enough to lead in times where lots of people are legitimately angry.
My theory is that Obama, for all the success he brought to the party, shook it up in ways the establishment structure really didn't like. Since then they haven't really been looking for the next Obama, because populism is dangerous to established power structures. That's why the 2020 convention didn't have a keynote speaker, it had 17 all saying a line or two from a speech, which means none of the "rising voices" actually has a chance to break out.
If this is what the Republicans want, why have they already filed a lawsuit to prevent the Democrats from giving the nomination to another candidate?
So that they can dominate their news outlets with it 24/7 and continue to inject division and chaos anywhere possible. Either way it's a win for them if they control the news cycle.
Seems to me that an action can have more than one purpose, and you aren't exactly refuting the fact that Biden is losing in the polls and Republicans know it.
Yeah republicans have clearly shown exactly who they are and what they care about and it's nothing good for 99% of people living in America.
Americans have fought and died for laws and protections that republicans are trying to strip from us daily and there is no reason for the evil they bring us except to make them wealthier.
Bunch of regressive assholes with no moral code ruining the fabric of American democracy for profit/religion.
I’ll vote for whoever is opposing Trump on the ticket. Seriously, I’ll vote for a fucking sock puppet.
The problem I have with Biden at this point is NOT that he’s old, or possibly not all there.
The problem I have with Biden at this point is that he’s clearly staunchly opposed to using the (very dangerous) gift that the Supreme Court gave him with the “official act” immunity ruling in literally any way, shape, or form. He clearly does not have the willpower or balls to do fucking anything meaningful in a truly existential crisis of American democracy. That - and that alone - makes him entirely unfit for the presidency in my eyes. He is, and has been for most of his term, abrogating his oath of office to protect and defend the constitution from enemies foreign and domestic. He’s going to stand around, do fuck all, shake some hands, and suddenly we’ll find ourselves in an authoritarian dictatorship because he didn’t want to do anything that was tOo diVisIVe. The fascists are going to march in, and he’s going to shake their hand and try to negotiate. Fascists who hold power, notably, tend not to negotiate.
So, genuine question ... who's willing to predict whether Biden will go to the election or not?
I'm a not a USian or plugged in that much, but this topic feels strangely fractured. Anyone with some certainties they're willing to put online?
Edit: not a USian.
https://abc.com/news/02867c69-fefa-4807-a561-bb2d77425d5e/category/1138628
Biden has an easy, but hopefully not too softball, interview scheduled for Friday (July 5th), with a transcript available that night and the full interview airing on Sunday.
The interview is with George Stephanopoulos who worked in the Clinton Whitehouse, so he will be favorable to Biden. However Biden needs to prove that the poor debate performance was a fluke, so it can't just be softball questions.
Also the transcript being available earlier means everyone is going to be clear on the message (which is good in general) but also means the focus is going to be on performance.
If Democrats/Biden spend the next week embarrassed by that interview then Biden is probably done. The RNC holds their convention the following week, they'll beat on Biden and you can either let them (wasting time/energy) or you can announce just as it gets started and suck the air out of their convention.
However I fully expect this interview to go well. This is a smart idea by Biden (the timing sucks, but he doesn't have much of a choice). He needs to prove that debate was a fluke. This is exactly what you want to see from Biden. But it he fucks up again, it's going to hurt.
Everyone knows Trump is a steaming pile of shit. People voting for him don't care. Democrats will come out and support Biden, but you need the undecided voters (whomever they are) to go with them.
So to answer your question, I fully expect Biden to go all the way to the election. I'm not sure that's what I want or that it's the best idea, but Biden is taking the right steps to turn things around. This next week is an important one.
I think scheduling a 15 minute interview and otherwise sticking to short scripted events is already a failure. They need to flood the zone with him being out and in front of cameras to dispel the debate appearance. That they're not doing that is its own indicator.
I didn't realize it would be that short. Looking online it appears to be estimating 15 to 25. It would probably be smart to just go for a whole hour, but I admit that isn't likely.
I agree flood the zone is the approach needed, but this is a fine first step.
They were trying this the few days after the debate where he was at various rallies. Just him, in front of his own supporters. He imho he still didn’t come off all that great :(
I don't really get reassured by rallies. Scripted events he can end at will with no on-the-spot thinking can be done to some extent on autopilot. He was apparently looking great at some generic meet and greets right after the debate. To try to bury the concern he needs interactive speaking engagements on ranging and potentially challenging topics. Town halls, Q&As with followers, late night shows. Let's see some sharp answers on the spot.
My point is, even the scripted shit didn’t make him look good. If he can’t get those right, he’ll for sure fuck up another “debate.”
If I had to put odds on it, I’d say it’s more likely he goes to the election.
It's almost entirely a choice in Biden's hands. The indicators are all bad, but he's famously stubborn and his family, who's suffered through the campaign, wants him to keep going. I don't think his situation is recoverable. He's had public calls to drop out and plenty of high profile Democrats giving hedging answers about his future, but I can't predict how Biden will react. Baseline personality would suggest he stays, but his situation is really bad.
You can do it Joe!
It isn't looking like he can... and if he stays in and doesn't, his pride causing a Trump win will be his legacy. Democrats had 4 years to pick a likeable candidate, but instead pulled out the 2020 playbook of trying to get people to vote against the other candidate rather than for the candidate that is running.
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