Hadn’t heard about this but sounds like a crazy situation, and a Hollywood script to be on the verge of the postseason for the first time ever while about to be shut down.
this post was submitted on 30 May 2024
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Their recent form is abysmal, so they're not progressing beyond the quarterfinals unless some kinda miracle happens. One of the quirks of SR is that its a round & a 1/2 and the 1/2 round is against your home countries clubs for more derbies.
So the Aussie teams play the other aussie teams more than the kiwi teams get to - which can inflate their table position a little bit. The Rebels did really well early in the season, but in the back end fell off the wagon.
I'm on the other side of the tasman; but from what i've gleaned over the years...
NZR have been trying to convince RA they can't support 5 teams for years, both financially and with player depth. The previous more adversarial leadership of RA were determined that that wasn't true, and that cracking the Melbourne market was crucial. That's why a few years ago when they did drop a team they dropped the Force who were well supported in favour of the Rebels who struggle to make a mark in a state where Aussie Rules, rules and why for years even though it was obvious that the Rebels were struggling financially they were allowed to spend ever more on recruiting star players.
Not coincidentally, when Australia dropped the Force and went to 4 teams, the Rebels picked up some of their players and had their most successful seasons. So in terms of the competition next year it should mean the 4 remaining Aussie teams will be stronger and probably pick up even more wins against NZ sides. This has been a really successful year (comparatively) for Aus, with 3 teams in the playoffs, and the Brumbies were in the running to top the table and only mathematically lost that opportunity in the final round.
How does an 11 team competition work? I dunno. There's been suggestion that SR will try to convince the Jaguares to rejoin and they are apparently quite keen but adding a team in Argentina makes it a much more expensive competition and ensures one game every other week that almost nobody in Australasia will watch - so god knows if the main broadcasters would be interested.
The obvious, but difficult, answer is that NZR (in particular) and SR in general need to humbly beseech Japan for some way of having a crossover competition. Japan League 1 & SR finish quite close together now so one option would be to do a post-season competition which is seeded in a way to ensure the top Japanese teams are likely to win & progress through the rounds. Something like the 7s where as you get knocked out of the running for the top trophy you drop into competition for others would make sense.
Would anyone in Japan watch? I dunno. Would anybody in Australasia - probably; it would at least be something different and the best Japanese teams have a lot of star players in their twilight years. Would it be competitive? Who knows.